China 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a significant political event that measures the party's strategic direction, leadership changes, and policy priorities for the coming years. It primarily assesses governance, economic policy direction, and the socio-political climate within China, influencing production, employment, and foreign affairs.

Frequency

This event occurs every five years, with the next congress being held in 2027, following the last one in October 2022, which set initial agendas and directives for the government.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the outcomes of the National Congress because it can substantially influence economic policies, international relations, and market sentiment in China. Changes in leadership or significant policy shifts discussed during the congress can impact financial markets globally, affecting assets like currencies, commodities, and stocks, as expectations about China's economic growth and stability are closely tied to CCP decisions.

What Is It Derived From?

The congress is derived from internal party deliberations, policy proposals, and discussions involving delegates from across the country. Key aspects include reports from the current leadership, resolutions voted upon, and the voting patterns of the delegates, which reflect internal party consensus and direction.

Description

The 20th National Congress acts as a platform for the Chinese Communist Party to outline its future vision, strategic goals, and policy orientations in response to domestic and international challenges. It is influential in signaling potential reforms, shifts in economic policy, or strategies relating to trade and investment, impacting not just China but also the global economic landscape.

Additional Notes

This event can be considered a leading indicator of future economic conditions in China, as it often sets the stage for upcoming legislation and reforms. It is essential to observe how the congress's outcomes align with broader economic trends, as its decisions may affect China's relationships with other countries and impact global markets.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling economic support through potential policy easing, is usually good for the CNY but bad for Stocks due to concerns over growth sustainability.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise