Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Markit Economics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.5

AUD

Actual:

48.6

Forecast: 48.1

Previous/Revision:

48.4

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash measures the health of the manufacturing sector in Australia, focusing on key areas such as production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times. This indicator is critical as it provides insights into economic activity by assessing the expansion or contraction within the manufacturing sector, with a PMI value above 50 indicating growth, while a value below indicates contraction.

Frequency

The Manufacturing PMI Flash is released monthly, typically published on the first business day of the month as a preliminary estimate of the manufacturing sector's performance for that month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Manufacturing PMI Flash due to its significance for gauging economic health, which directly impacts financial markets. A higher-than-expected PMI can boost investor sentiment towards the Australian dollar (AUD) and equity markets, whereas a lower reading may signal economic weakness, negatively affecting currencies and stock prices.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI Flash is calculated from a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, who provide responses on factors such as production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. The index is derived using diffusion indices, which provide a weighted average to reflect the overall conditions of the sector based on these managers' expectations.

Description

The Manufacturing PMI Flash serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting real-time sentiment and potential changes in economic conditions within the manufacturing sector. Given its preliminary nature, the flash report is critical for traders as it can set expectations and influence market movements prior to more comprehensive revisions in the final PMI data.

Additional Notes

This indicator is considered a leading measure, providing advanced insights relative to the overall economic health and is often compared with other indicators such as the Services PMI and the Composite PMI. Understanding its relation to global economic trends is essential, as shifts in Australia's manufacturing sector can also reflect broader trends influencing related economies in the Asia-Pacific region.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 22, 2023	48.6	48.1	48.4	0.5
May 22, 2023	48	47.6	48	0.4
Apr 20, 2023	48.1	48	49.1	0.1
Mar 23, 2023	48.7	50.4	50.5	-1.7
Feb 20, 2023	50.1	49.4	50	0.7
Jan 23, 2023	49.8	49.5	50.2	0.3
Dec 15, 2022	50.4	51	51.3	-0.6