United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.7

USD

Actual:

48.7

Forecast: 48

Previous/Revision:

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is an economic indicator that measures the overall health of the manufacturing sector in the United States, focusing on production levels, employment, and new orders. It specifically assesses the performance of manufacturing firms through a survey of purchasing managers, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion in the sector and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, providing both preliminary and final figures.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the ISM Manufacturing PMI due to its implications for the broader economy, as a stronger-than-expected reading often signals growth and can lead to bullish sentiment in financial markets, affecting currencies like the USD and influencing stock prices. Conversely, a weaker reading can indicate economic slowdown, prompting bearish sentiment and potential declines in key assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is derived from a survey conducted among purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with over 300 respondents representing a diverse set of industries. It combines multiple components, including new orders, production, and employment, using a diffusion index to calculate the overall index value based on the changes in these areas.

Description

The ISM Manufacturing PMI serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting future economic activity in the manufacturing sector before actual output data is available. This indicator not only tracks changes in manufacturing activity but also provides insights into supply chain pressures, inventory levels, and overall business sentiment, making it an essential tool for economists and investors alike.

Additional Notes

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is considered a leading economic measure, as it tends to predict shifts in economic trends before they occur. It is often compared with other indicators like the Industrial Production Index and the manufacturing component of the GDP, providing a broader context for economic analysis and policymaking.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 01, 2025	48.7	48	49	0.7
Apr 01, 2025	49	49.5	50.3	-0.5
Mar 03, 2025	50.3	50.5	50.9	-0.2
Feb 03, 2025	50.9	49.8	49.2	1.1
Jan 03, 2025	49.3	48.4	48.4	0.9
Dec 02, 2024	48.4	47.5	46.5	0.9
Nov 01, 2024	46.5	47.6	47.2	-1.1
Oct 01, 2024	47.2	47.5	47.2	-0.3
Sep 03, 2024	47.2	47.5	46.8	-0.3
Aug 01, 2024	46.8	48.8	48.5	-2
Jul 01, 2024	48.5	49.1	48.7	-0.6
Jun 03, 2024	48.7	49.6	49.2	-0.9
May 01, 2024	49.2	50	50.3	-0.8
Apr 01, 2024	50.3	48.4	47.8	1.9
Mar 01, 2024	47.8	49.5	49.1	-1.7
Feb 01, 2024	49.1	47	47.1	2.1
Jan 03, 2024	47.4	47.1	46.7	0.3
Dec 01, 2023	46.7	47.6	46.7	-0.9
Nov 01, 2023	46.7	49	49	-2.3
Oct 02, 2023	49	47.8	47.6	1.2
Sep 01, 2023	47.6	47	46.4	0.6
Aug 01, 2023	46.4	46.8	46	-0.4
Jul 03, 2023	46	47	46.9	-1
Jun 01, 2023	46.9	47	47.1	-0.1
May 01, 2023	47.1	46.8	46.3	0.3
Apr 03, 2023	46.3	47.5	47.7	-1.2
Mar 01, 2023	47.7	48	47.4	-0.3
Feb 01, 2023	47.4	48	48.4	-0.6
Jan 04, 2023	48.4	48.5	49	-0.1
Dec 01, 2022	49	49.8	50.2	-0.8
Nov 01, 2022	50.2	50	50.9	0.2
Oct 03, 2022	50.9	52.2	52.8	-1.3
Sep 01, 2022	52.8	52	52.8	0.8
Aug 01, 2022	52.8	52	53	0.8
Jul 01, 2022	53	54.9	56.1	-1.9
Jun 01, 2022	56.1	54.5	55.4	1.6
May 02, 2022	55.4	57.6	57.1	-2.2
Apr 01, 2022	57.1	59	58.6	-1.9
Mar 01, 2022	58.6	58	57.6	0.6
Feb 01, 2022	57.6	57.5	58.8	0.1
Jan 04, 2022	58.7	60	61.1	-1.3
Dec 01, 2021	61.1	61	60.8	0.1
Nov 01, 2021	60.8	60.5	61.1	0.3
Oct 01, 2021	61.1	59.6	59.9	1.5
Sep 01, 2021	59.9	58.6	59.5	1.3
Aug 02, 2021	59.5	60.9	60.6	-1.4
Jul 01, 2021	60.6	61	61.2	-0.4
Jun 01, 2021	61.2	60.9	60.7	0.3
May 03, 2021	60.7	65	64.7	-4.3
Apr 01, 2021	64.7	61.3	60.8	3.4
Mar 01, 2021	60.8	58.8	58.7	2
Feb 01, 2021	58.7	60	60.5	-1.3
Jan 05, 2021	60.7	56.6	57.5	4.1
Dec 01, 2020	57.5	58	59.3	-0.5
Nov 02, 2020	59.3	55.8	55.4	3.5
Oct 01, 2020	55.4	56.4	56	-1
Sep 01, 2020	56	54.5	54.2	1.5
Aug 03, 2020	54.2	53.6	52.6	0.6
Jul 01, 2020	52.6	49.5	43.1	3.1
Jun 01, 2020	43.1	43.6	41.5	-0.5
May 01, 2020	41.5	36.9	49.1	4.6
Apr 01, 2020	49.1	45	50.1	4.1
Mar 02, 2020	50.1	50.5	50.9	-0.4
Feb 03, 2020	50.9	48.5	47.8	2.4
Jan 03, 2020	47.2	49	48.1	-1.8
Dec 02, 2019	48.1	49.2	48.3	-1.1
Nov 01, 2019	48.3	48.9	47.8	-0.6
Oct 01, 2019	47.8	50.1	49.1	-2.3
Sep 03, 2019	49.1	51.1	51.2	-2
Aug 01, 2019	51.2	52	51.7	-0.8
Jul 01, 2019	51.7	51	52.1	0.7
Jun 03, 2019	52.1	53	52.8	-0.9
May 01, 2019	52.8	55	55.3	-2.2
Apr 01, 2019	55.3	54.5	54.2	0.8
Mar 01, 2019	54.2	55.5	56.6	-1.3
Feb 01, 2019	56.6	54.2	54.3	2.4
Jan 03, 2019	54.1	57.9	59.3	-3.8
Dec 03, 2018	59.3	57.6	57.7	1.7
Nov 01, 2018	57.7	59	59.8	-1.3
Oct 01, 2018	59.8	60.1	61.3	-0.3
Sep 04, 2018	61.3	57.7	58.1	3.6
Aug 01, 2018	58.1	59.5	60.2	-1.4
Jul 02, 2018	60.2	58.4	58.7	1.8
Jun 01, 2018	58.7	58.1	57.3	0.6
May 01, 2018	57.3	58.3	59.3	-1
Apr 02, 2018	59.3	60	60.8	-0.7
Mar 01, 2018	60.8	58.7	59.1	2.1
Feb 01, 2018	59.1	58.8	59.3	0.3
Jan 03, 2018	59.7	58.1	58.2	1.6
Dec 01, 2017	58.2	58.4	58.7	-0.2
Nov 01, 2017	58.7	59.5	60.8	-0.8
Oct 02, 2017	60.8	58	58.8	2.8
Sep 01, 2017	58.8	56.5	56.3	2.3
Aug 01, 2017	56.3	56.5	57.8	-0.2
Jul 03, 2017	57.8	55.2	54.9	2.6
Jun 01, 2017	54.9	54.5	54.8	0.4
May 01, 2017	54.8	56.5	57.2	-1.7
Apr 03, 2017	57.2	57	57.7	0.2
Mar 01, 2017	57.7	56	56	1.7
Feb 01, 2017	56	55	54.5	1
Jan 03, 2017	54.7	58	53.2	-3.3
Dec 01, 2016	53.2	52.2	51.9	1
Nov 01, 2016	51.9	51.7	51.5	0.2
Oct 03, 2016	51.5	50.3	49.4	1.2
Sep 01, 2016	49.4	52	52.6	-2.6
Aug 01, 2016	52.6	53	53.2	-0.4
Jul 01, 2016	53.2	51.4	51.3	1.8
Jun 01, 2016	51.3	50.4	50.8	0.9
May 02, 2016	50.8	51.4	51.8	-0.6
Apr 01, 2016	51.8	50.7	49.5	1.1
Mar 01, 2016	49.5	48.5	48.2	1
Feb 01, 2016	48.2	48	48	0.2
Jan 04, 2016	48.2	49	48.6	-0.8
Dec 01, 2015	48.6	50.4	50.1	-1.8
Nov 02, 2015	50.1	50	50.2	0.1
Oct 01, 2015	50.2	50.6	51.1	-0.4
Sep 01, 2015	51.1	52.6	52.7	-1.5
Aug 03, 2015	52.7	53.6	53.5	-0.9
Jul 01, 2015	53.5	53.1	52.8	0.4
Jun 01, 2015	52.8	52	51.5	0.8
May 01, 2015	51.5	52	51.5	-0.5