New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.5%

Forecast: 0.5%

Previous/Revision:

0.25%

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The New Zealand Interest Rate Decision measures the official cash rate (OCR) set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This key monetary policy tool focuses on controlling inflation and guiding economic growth and assesses the general cost of borrowing and saving across the economy.

Frequency

This event is released every six weeks; specific dates are announced well in advance, and the results are usually a final figure.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the interest rate decision as it significantly impacts the New Zealand dollar (NZD), influencing investor sentiment toward New Zealand assets. Changes in the OCR can affect borrowing costs, consumer spending, and ultimately economic growth, making this data vital for forecasting market trends.

What Is It Derived From?

The interest rate decision is derived from a comprehensive assessment of economic indicators including inflation rates, employment figures, and overall economic performance. The RBNZ analyzes a range of data from various sectors and conducts consultations to form a consensus on the optimal rate necessary to maintain price stability and economic growth.

Description

The interest rate decision presents the RBNZ's latest assessment of the economy and the rationale behind the adjustments to the OCR. The preliminary data reflects the monetary policy outlook based on early economic assessments, while the final distinction encompasses the RBNZ's comprehensive economic analysis and the underlying factors influencing the decision.

Additional Notes

This decision acts as a leading indicator, often predicting economic trends in terms of consumer spending and investment behaviors. It is vital in relation to global economic conditions, especially as it can have ripple effects on currency exchange rates and international trade dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the decision indicates a hike higher than expected: Bullish for NZD, Bearish for Stocks. If it signals a cut lower than expected: Bearish for NZD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the NZD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Oct 06, 2021	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%
Aug 18, 2021	0.25%	0.5%	0.25%	-0.25%
Jul 14, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
May 26, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Apr 14, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Feb 24, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Nov 11, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 23, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Aug 12, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jun 24, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
May 13, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Mar 15, 2020	0.25%	0.75%	1%	-0.5%
Feb 12, 2020	1%	1%	1%
Nov 13, 2019	1%	0.75%	1%	0.25%
Sep 25, 2019	1%	1%	1%
Aug 07, 2019	1%	1.25%	1.5%	-0.25%
Jun 26, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
May 08, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.75%
Mar 27, 2019	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Feb 13, 2019	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Nov 07, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Sep 26, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Aug 08, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Jun 27, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
May 09, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Mar 21, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Feb 07, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Nov 08, 2017	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Sep 27, 2017	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Aug 09, 2017	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Jun 21, 2017	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
May 10, 2017	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Mar 22, 2017	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Feb 08, 2017	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Nov 09, 2016	1.75%	1.75%	2%
Sep 21, 2016	2%	2%	2%
Aug 10, 2016	2%	2%	2.25%
Jun 08, 2016	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
Apr 27, 2016	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
Mar 09, 2016	2.25%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.25%
Jan 27, 2016	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Dec 09, 2015	2.5%	2.5%	2.75%
Oct 28, 2015	2.75%	2.75%	2.75%
Sep 09, 2015	2.75%	2.75%	3%
Jul 22, 2015	3%	3%	3.25%
Jun 10, 2015	3.25%	3.5%	3.5%	-0.25%