Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

Forecast: 2%

Previous/Revision:

1.9%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 1.9%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Italy Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary measure assesses the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services consumed by households over the past year, explicitly reflecting inflation within the Italian economy. This indicator primarily focuses on consumer expenses and is critical for understanding purchasing power, as well as its impact on economic stability and policy decisions.

Frequency

This event is released monthly, with preliminary estimates typically published around the 30th of each month, providing an early indication of inflation trends prior to the final report.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the inflation rate as it significantly influences monetary policy, affecting interest rates and consequently impacting financial markets, including currencies, equities, and bonds. A higher-than-expected inflation reading can lead to bullish sentiments for the euro and stocks, as it may signal economic growth, while lower readings may lead to bearish sentiments and concerns about economic weakness.

What Is It Derived From?

The inflation rate is calculated using data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), which collects prices on a diverse set of goods and services through surveys. The calculation involves a weighted index of price changes, ensuring representation across various sectors to accurately reflect consumer experiences.

Description

Preliminary reports of the inflation rate are based on early assessments of price changes, with these figures later refined into final estimates that provide a more accurate representation of consumer price developments. The preliminary data, while subject to revision, captures timely economic conditions, thus affecting market perceptions and reactions soon after its release.

Additional Notes

The Italy Inflation Rate is considered a leading indicator, providing insights into future consumer spending and overall economic health. Consequently, significant movements in this measure can signal broader trends not only within Italy but across the Eurozone as well, influencing exchanges and trade dynamics regionally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	2%	2%	1.9%
Mar 31, 2025	2%	1.6%	1.6%	0.4%
Feb 28, 2025	1.7%	1.7%	1.5%
Feb 03, 2025	1.5%	1%	1.3%	0.5%
Jan 07, 2025	1.3%	1.5%	1.3%	-0.2%
Nov 29, 2024	1.4%	1.4%	0.9%
Oct 31, 2024	0.9%	1%	0.7%	-0.1%
Sep 30, 2024	0.7%	0.8%	1.1%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2024	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2024	1.3%	1.2%	0.8%	0.1%
Jun 28, 2024	0.8%	1%	0.8%	-0.2%
May 31, 2024	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Apr 30, 2024	0.9%	1%	1.2%	-0.1%
Mar 29, 2024	1.3%	1.4%	0.8%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2024	0.8%	0.9%	0.8%	-0.1%
Feb 01, 2024	0.8%	1.1%	0.6%	-0.3%
Jan 05, 2024	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	-0.1%
Nov 30, 2023	0.8%	1.3%	1.7%	-0.5%
Oct 31, 2023	1.8%	2.3%	5.3%	-0.5%
Sep 29, 2023	5.3%	5.3%	5.4%
Aug 31, 2023	5.5%	5.3%	5.9%	0.2%
Jul 31, 2023	6%	6.1%	6.4%	-0.1%
Jun 28, 2023	6.4%	6.8%	7.6%	-0.4%
May 31, 2023	7.6%	7.4%	8.2%	0.2%
May 02, 2023	8.3%	8.2%	7.6%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2023	7.7%	8.2%	9.1%	-0.5%
Mar 02, 2023	9.2%	8.8%	10%	0.4%
Feb 01, 2023	10.1%	10.1%	11.6%
Jan 05, 2023	11.6%	11.6%	11.8%
Nov 30, 2022	11.8%	11.3%	11.8%	0.5%
Oct 28, 2022	11.9%	9.6%	8.9%	2.3%
Sep 30, 2022	8.9%	8.7%	8.4%	0.2%
Aug 31, 2022	8.4%	8.1%	7.9%	0.3%
Jul 29, 2022	7.9%	8.1%	8%	-0.2%
Jul 01, 2022	8%	7.4%	6.8%	0.6%
May 31, 2022	6.9%	6.2%	6%	0.7%
Apr 29, 2022	6.2%	6.3%	6.5%	-0.1%
Mar 31, 2022	6.7%	6.4%	5.7%	0.3%
Mar 01, 2022	5.7%	5.3%	4.8%	0.4%
Feb 02, 2022	4.8%	3.8%	3.9%	1%
Jan 05, 2022	3.9%	3.9%	3.7%
Nov 30, 2021	3.8%	3.2%	3%	0.6%
Oct 29, 2021	2.9%	2.6%	2.5%	0.3%
Sep 30, 2021	2.6%	2.4%	2%	0.2%
Aug 31, 2021	2.1%	2%	1.9%	0.1%
Jul 30, 2021	1.8%	1.7%	1.3%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2021	1.3%	1.4%	1.3%	-0.1%
May 31, 2021	1.3%	1.5%	1.1%	-0.2%
Apr 30, 2021	1.1%	1%	0.8%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2021	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%
Mar 01, 2021	0.6%	0.5%	0.4%	0.1%
Feb 03, 2021	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.3%
Jan 07, 2021	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
Nov 30, 2020	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.1%
Oct 30, 2020	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.6%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2020	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2020	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.4%
Jul 31, 2020	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Jun 30, 2020	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
May 29, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%
Apr 30, 2020	0%	-0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
Mar 31, 2020	0.1%	-0.4%	0.3%	0.5%
Feb 28, 2020	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.1%
Feb 04, 2020	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Jan 07, 2020	0.5%	0.6%	0.2%	-0.1%
Nov 29, 2019	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2019	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2019	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	-0.2%
Aug 30, 2019	0.5%	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
Jul 31, 2019	0.5%	0.5%	0.7%
Jun 28, 2019	0.8%	0.7%	0.8%	0.1%
May 31, 2019	0.9%	1.3%	1.1%	-0.4%
Apr 30, 2019	1.1%	1.3%	1%	-0.2%
Mar 29, 2019	1%	1%	1%
Feb 28, 2019	1.1%	1.1%	0.9%
Feb 04, 2019	0.9%	1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Jan 04, 2019	1.1%	1.6%	1.6%	-0.5%
Nov 30, 2018	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%
Oct 31, 2018	1.6%	1.7%	1.4%	-0.1%
Sep 28, 2018	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	-0.2%
Aug 31, 2018	1.7%	1.4%	1.5%	0.3%
Jul 31, 2018	1.5%	1.4%	1.3%	0.1%
Jun 28, 2018	1.4%	1.3%	1%	0.1%
May 31, 2018	1.1%	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%
Apr 30, 2018	0.5%	0.7%	0.8%	-0.2%
Mar 30, 2018	0.9%	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%
Feb 28, 2018	0.6%	0.7%	0.9%	-0.1%
Feb 02, 2018	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
Jan 05, 2018	0.9%	1.1%	0.9%	-0.2%
Nov 30, 2017	0.9%	1.1%	1%	-0.2%
Oct 31, 2017	1%	1.1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Sep 29, 2017	1.1%	1.3%	1.2%	-0.2%
Aug 31, 2017	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
Jul 31, 2017	1.1%	1%	1.2%	0.1%
Jun 28, 2017	1.2%	1.4%	1.4%	-0.2%
May 31, 2017	1.4%	1.4%	1.9%
Apr 28, 2017	1.8%	1.7%	1.4%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2017	1.4%	1.5%	1.6%	-0.1%
Feb 28, 2017	1.5%	1.4%	1%	0.1%
Feb 03, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%
Jan 04, 2017	0.5%	0.11%	0.1%	0.39%
Nov 30, 2016	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.2%
Oct 31, 2016	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
Sep 30, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 29, 2016	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.4%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2016	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%
May 31, 2016	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.5%
Apr 29, 2016	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Mar 31, 2016	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.1%
Feb 29, 2016	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.3%	-0.2%
Feb 03, 2016	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Jan 05, 2016	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 30, 2015	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.2%
Oct 30, 2015	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2015	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Aug 31, 2015	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2015	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jun 30, 2015	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
May 29, 2015	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%