United States Inflation Rate MoM Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.2%

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

0.2%

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The United States Inflation Rate MoM Final measures the percentage change in the price level of a basket of goods and services over the course of a month, explicitly assessing inflationary pressures in the economy. This indicator primarily focuses on consumer prices, highlighting key areas such as housing, transportation, and food costs, with a reading above 0 indicating inflationary growth and a reading below 0 indicating deflationary pressure at the national level.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the second or third week of the month, and generally reflects a final figure that considers all revisions of preliminary data initially released.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the monthly inflation rate as it is a crucial gauge of economic health that influences monetary policy decisions and can significantly impact financial markets. Higher-than-expected inflation readings can lead to bullish sentiment in currencies and equities, while lower-than-expected outcomes may exert bearish pressure on these assets, affecting interest rate expectations and broader economic forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The inflation rate is derived from a comprehensive consumer price index (CPI) that involves a survey of prices from a representative sample of goods and services purchased by households in the U.S. The calculation uses a weighted index methodology reflecting the relative importance of various items, gathered through regular surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Description

The difference between preliminary and final reports for the inflation rate is significant; preliminary data relies on early estimates and is subject to revision, while the final report provides a more accurate reflection lacking such revisions, usually having a stronger impact on market sentiment. The inflation rate is reported using a month-over-month (MoM) comparison, allowing traders to assess short-term price changes and react promptly to sudden economic shifts.

Additional Notes

The monthly inflation rate is considered a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current economic conditions and consumer purchasing power. This event is critical as it relates closely to central bank policies, other inflation measures, and broader economic trends both domestically and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Feb 09, 2024		0.2%		0.2%