United States Independence Day Observed

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The United States Independence Day Observed does not measure a conventional economic indicator but rather signals a federal holiday, specifically the observance of July 4th, which commemorates the Declaration of Independence. Its primary focus is on the impact of holiday-related activities, influencing consumer spending, workforce attendance, and overall economic activity during that period.

Frequency

Independence Day is a national holiday occurring annually on July 4th, with observed days typically replacing it on the nearest Monday when it falls on a weekend.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay attention to Independence Day Observed as it often affects consumer spending patterns, retail sales, and economic productivity, which can influence stock and currency markets. The holiday can lead to temporary market closures and shift trading volumes, impacting short-term market fluctuations and economic forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The significance of Independence Day Observed comes from historical events related to the United States’ independence, rather than statistical calculations or surveys. It is recognized through federal mandates and historical observances, with businesses often adapting their operations around this holiday.

Description

While not an economic measurement itself, the observance of Independence Day influences various economic activities, particularly retail sales and tourism, as many Americans partake in celebrations, including travel, dining, and public events. The observing of this day often correlates with increased consumer expenditure, prompting businesses to capitalize on the associated celebrations and festivities.

Additional Notes

Independence Day can serve as a coincident indicator of consumer sentiment and economic health, as increased spending often reflects positive economic conditions. Furthermore, the holiday's impact on various sectors, such as hospitality and retail, is indicative of broader economic trends observed during holiday seasons across the country.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

The impact of Independence Day Observed on currency and stocks is indirect; however, strong consumer spending during the holiday often leads to bullish sentiment for stocks. For instance, if retail sales exceed expectations during this period, it is generally considered bullish for the US Dollar and the equities market, indicating a healthy economic environment.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise