United States Independence Day

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

Independence Day in the United States does not directly measure an economic indicator but marks a significant national holiday that affects various economic activities, particularly retail sales, travel, and service industries. Key focus areas include consumer spending, employment rate in the hospitality sector, and overall economic activity associated with holiday celebrations.

Frequency

The Independence Day celebration occurs annually on July 4th, and while it does not produce regular economic reports, its economic implications can be observed through various monthly and quarterly reports related to retail and travel expenditures.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders and investors pay attention to Independence Day due to its potential impact on consumer spending and retail sales figures, which can affect stock prices in these sectors. Increased holiday spending can lead to bullish sentiment as companies report higher revenues, which, in turn, can influence broader market trends.

What Is It Derived From?

The economic effects associated with Independence Day are derived from consumer behavior analyses, surveys conducted by retail associations, and travel industry reports that consider holiday-related spending patterns. Various methodologies are used to estimate the increase in spending during this holiday, often involving sampling sales data across numerous vendors and sectors.

Description

The economic impact of Independence Day is primarily reflected in monthly retail sales data, which usually reports year-over-year comparisons to gauge growth or contraction. This holiday brings about increased spending in sectors such as food and beverage, travel, hospitality, and retail, highlighting consumer confidence and economic vitality associated with holiday festivities.

Additional Notes

Independence Day is often seen as a coincident economic indicator reflecting current economic conditions through consumer spending trends. Its significance can also relate to other seasonal holidays and economic indicators, influencing projections for future economic growth depending on spending patterns observed during the holiday period.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Independence Day does not typically involve explicit numerical forecasts or monetary policy implications; therefore, this section is not applicable. The focus is on general consumer behavior and sentiment rather than specific bullish or bearish outcomes for currency and stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 04, 2025
Jul 04, 2024
Jul 04, 2023
Jul 04, 2022
Jul 05, 2021
Jul 04, 2020
Jul 04, 2019
Jul 04, 2018
Jul 04, 2017
Jul 04, 2016
Jul 04, 2015