Italy IHS Markit Services PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Markit Economics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.3

EUR

Actual:

52.8

Forecast: 52.5

Previous/Revision:

48.5

Period: Feb

What Does It Measure?

The Italy IHS Markit Services PMI measures the performance of the services sector in Italy, specifically focusing on aspects such as business activity, new orders, employment levels, and supply chain pressure. This index is a key indicator of economic health, where a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Frequency

The Services PMI is released on a monthly basis, typically published in the first week of the month following the reporting period, and it is considered a preliminary estimate subject to potential revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the Services PMI due to its relevance in providing insights into the overall economic condition, which can influence various financial markets, including currencies, equities, and bonds. A higher-than-expected reading generally signals economic strength, positively affecting the euro and stock prices, whereas lower readings can lead to bearish sentiment across these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Services PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the services industry, with a typical sample size and respondent diversity ensuring representativity across various sectors. The index is calculated using a diffusion index formula, where key metrics are weighted to reflect overall business sentiment and activity levels.

Description

The preliminary estimate of the Services PMI highlights short-term economic trends specifically in the services sector in Italy, with higher PMI values indicating stronger sector performance. The index serves as a leading indicator, giving insights into future economic activity based on current business sentiment.

Additional Notes

As a leading indicator, the Services PMI often correlates with other economic measures like GDP growth and consumer spending, helping economists gauge the immediate economic environment. The PMI is closely monitored not only in Italy but also in other eurozone countries, allowing for comparisons that may inform broader economic expectations across the region.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 03, 2022	52.8	52.5	48.5	0.3
Feb 03, 2022	48.5	50	53	-1.5
Jan 05, 2022	53	54	55.9	-1
Dec 03, 2021	55.9	54.8	52.4	1.1
Nov 04, 2021	52.4	54.5	55.5	-2.1
Oct 05, 2021	55.5	56.5	58	-1
Sep 03, 2021	58	58.5	58	-0.5
Aug 04, 2021	58	58.3	56.7	-0.3
Jul 05, 2021	56.7	56	53.1	0.7
Jun 03, 2021	53.1	52.5	47.3	0.6
May 05, 2021	47.3	49.8	48.6	-2.5
Apr 07, 2021	48.6	49	48.8	-0.4
Mar 03, 2021	48.8	46	44.7	2.8
Feb 03, 2021	44.7	39.5	39.7	5.2
Jan 06, 2021	39.7	45.3	39.4	-5.6
Dec 03, 2020	39.4	41.3	46.7	-1.9
Nov 04, 2020	46.7	47	48.8	-0.3