Germany Ifo Business Climate

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Ifo Institute

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.1

EUR

Actual:

87.5

Forecast: 87.4

Previous/Revision:

86.9

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 88.2

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Germany Ifo Business Climate Index measures the business sentiment of around 9,000 companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesaling, and retail sectors. It specifically focuses on assessing current business conditions and expectations for the next six months, helping to gauge the overall economic outlook in Germany, which is a key regional indicator for the Eurozone.

Frequency

The Ifo Business Climate Index is released monthly, typically on the last working day of the month, and is presented as a preliminary estimate before revisions may occur in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay attention to the Ifo Business Climate Index because it serves as an important barometer of economic health, influencing investment decisions in various markets. A higher-than-expected index value typically indicates bullish sentiment for the euro and equities, whereas disappointing data may lead to bearish reactions in currency and stock markets as it suggests potential economic weakness.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey conducted amongst approximately 9,000 German businesses, which is designed to capture their assessments of current business conditions and expectations for the near future. The calculation involves a diffusion index method, where responses are weighted to reflect their impact on the economy, thus providing an overall measure of business confidence.

Description

The Ifo Business Climate Index is a leading economic indicator, as it reflects business sentiment and can predict future economic activity. The preliminary report is based on early data collection and reflects expectations, while the final report often contains adjusted figures that provide a clearer picture of the business climate, influencing market behavior significantly upon their release.

Additional Notes

The Ifo Business Climate Index is often compared with other leading indicators, such as the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and it can influence forecasts on economic growth within Germany and the Eurozone. As a leading measure, it can help anticipate shifts in economic conditions before they manifest in other macroeconomic indicators.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the Ifo index is higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. If lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. The perceived tone of this event is usually dovish, signaling easing economic conditions, which is often good for the currency due to lower interest rate forecasts but can be bad for stocks as it may indicate reduced corporate profitability.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 22, 2025	87.5	87.4	86.9	0.1
Apr 24, 2025	86.9	85.2	86.7	1.7
Mar 25, 2025	86.7	86.7	85.3
Feb 24, 2025	85.2	85.8	85.2	-0.6
Jan 27, 2025	85.1	84.7	84.7	0.4
Dec 17, 2024	84.7	85.6	85.6	-0.9
Nov 25, 2024	85.7	86	86.5	-0.3
Oct 25, 2024	86.5	85.6	85.4	0.9
Sep 24, 2024	85.4	86	86.6	-0.6
Aug 26, 2024	86.6	86	87	0.6
Jul 25, 2024	87	88.9	88.6	-1.9
Jun 24, 2024	88.6	89.7	89.3	-1.1
May 27, 2024	89.3	90.4	89.3	-1.1
Apr 24, 2024	89.4	88.9	87.9	0.5
Mar 22, 2024	87.8	86	85.7	1.8
Feb 23, 2024	85.5	85.5	85.2
Jan 25, 2024	85.2	86.7	86.3	-1.5
Dec 18, 2023	86.4	87.8	87.2	-1.4
Nov 24, 2023	87.3	87.5	86.9	-0.2
Oct 25, 2023	86.9	85.9	85.8	1
Sep 25, 2023	85.7	85.2	85.8	0.5
Aug 25, 2023	85.7	86.7	87.4	-1
Jul 25, 2023	87.3	88	88.6	-0.7
Jun 26, 2023	88.5	90.7	91.5	-2.2
May 24, 2023	91.7	93	93.4	-1.3
Apr 24, 2023	93.6	94	93.2	-0.4
Mar 27, 2023	93.3	91	91.1	2.3
Feb 22, 2023	91.1	91.2	90.1	-0.1
Jan 25, 2023	90.2	90.2	88.6
Dec 19, 2022	88.6	87.4	86.4	1.2
Nov 24, 2022	86.3	85	84.5	1.3
Oct 25, 2022	84.3	83.3	84.4	1
Sep 26, 2022	84.3	87	88.6	-2.7
Aug 25, 2022	88.5	86.8	88.7	1.7
Jul 25, 2022	88.6	90.2	92.2	-1.6
Jun 24, 2022	92.3	92.9	93	-0.6
May 23, 2022	93	91.4	91.9	1.6
Apr 25, 2022	91.8	89.1	90.8	2.7
Mar 25, 2022	90.8	94.2	98.5	-3.4
Feb 22, 2022	98.9	96.5	96	2.4
Jan 25, 2022	95.7	94.7	94.8	1
Dec 17, 2021	94.7	95.3	96.6	-0.6
Nov 24, 2021	96.5	96.6	97.7	-0.1
Oct 25, 2021	97.7	97.9	98.9	-0.2
Sep 24, 2021	98.8	98.9	99.6	-0.1
Aug 25, 2021	99.4	100.4	100.7	-1
Jul 26, 2021	100.8	102.1	101.7	-1.3
Jun 24, 2021	101.8	100.6	99.2	1.2
May 25, 2021	99.2	98.2	96.6	1
Apr 26, 2021	96.8	97.8	96.6	-1
Mar 26, 2021	96.6	93.2	92.7	3.4
Feb 22, 2021	92.4	90.5	90.3	1.9
Jan 25, 2021	90.1	91.8	92.2	-1.7
Dec 18, 2020	92.1	90	90.9	2.1
Nov 24, 2020	90.7	90.1	92.5	0.6
Oct 26, 2020	92.7	93	93.2	-0.3
Sep 24, 2020	93.4	93.8	92.5	-0.4
Aug 25, 2020	92.6	92.2	90.4	0.4
Jul 27, 2020	90.5	89.3	86.3	1.2
Jun 24, 2020	86.2	85	79.7	1.2
May 25, 2020	79.5	78.3	74.2	1.2
Apr 24, 2020	74.3	80	85.9	-5.7
Feb 24, 2020	96.1	95.3	96	0.8
Jan 27, 2020	95.9	97	96.3	-1.1
Dec 18, 2019	96.3	95.5	95.1	0.8
Nov 25, 2019	95	95	94.7
Oct 25, 2019	94.6	94.5	94.6	0.1
Sep 24, 2019	94.6	94.4	94.3	0.2
Aug 26, 2019	94.3	95.1	95.8	-0.8
Jul 25, 2019	95.7	97.1	97.5	-1.4
Jun 24, 2019	97.4	97.2	97.9	0.2
May 23, 2019	97.9	99.1	99.2	-1.2
Apr 24, 2019	99.2	99.9	99.7	-0.7
Mar 25, 2019	99.6	98.5	98.7	1.1
Feb 22, 2019	98.5	99	99.3	-0.5
Jan 25, 2019	99.1	100.6	101	-1.5
Dec 18, 2018	101	101.8	102	-0.8
Nov 26, 2018	102	102.3	102.9	-0.3
Oct 25, 2018	102.8	103	103.7	-0.2
Sep 24, 2018	103.7	103.2	103.9	0.5
Aug 27, 2018	103.8	101.9	101.7	1.9
Jul 25, 2018	101.7	101.5	101.8	0.2
Jun 25, 2018	101.8	97.3	102.3	4.5
May 25, 2018	102.2	102.7	102.2	-0.5
Apr 24, 2018	102.1	102.7	103.3	-0.6
Mar 22, 2018	114.7	114.8	115.4	-0.1
Feb 22, 2018	115.4	117.1	117.6	-1.7