France HCOB Composite PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-3.5

EUR

Actual:

44.8

Forecast: 48.3

Previous/Revision:

48.1

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 45.9

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The France HCOB Composite PMI Flash measures the overall performance of the country's private sector, combining outputs from both the manufacturing and services sectors. This indicator assesses key areas such as production activity, employment levels, new orders, and business sentiment, making it a crucial economic gauge for understanding economic trends.

Frequency

This index is released on a monthly basis, typically as a preliminary estimate, and is published around the 23rd of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the PMI Flash as it provides timely insights into economic activity, which can influence market expectations. Stronger-than-expected results typically bolster the euro and equity markets, while weaker readings may lead to depreciation of the currency and a decline in stock prices.

What Is It Derived From?

The HCOB Composite PMI is derived from surveys of purchasing managers in both the manufacturing and service sectors, capturing their responses regarding business conditions and activity levels. The survey typically includes a significant random sample of firms, and responses are analyzed to create a diffusion index where values above 50 indicate expansion and values below 50 signal contraction.

Description

The France HCOB Composite PMI Flash is notable for its role as a leading indicator of economic health, encapsulating early signals of business growth or decline in response to various economic factors. Preliminary reports are based on initial survey results and are subject to revision later, whereas final reports provide a more comprehensive picture of economic conditions.

Additional Notes

This PMI Flash serves as a leading economic measure, providing insights that can predict future economic activity. It is closely watched in conjunction with other economic indicators such as the services PMI, manufacturing PMI, and overall GDP performance for a more comprehensive understanding of economic dynamics both regionally and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Nov 22, 2024	44.8	48.3	48.1	-3.5
Oct 24, 2024	47.3	49	48.6	-1.7
Sep 23, 2024	47.4	50.6	53.1	-3.2
Aug 22, 2024	52.7	49.1	49.1	3.6
Jul 24, 2024	49.5	48.9	48.8	0.6
Jun 21, 2024	48.2	49.5	48.9	-1.3
May 23, 2024	49.1	51	50.5	-1.9
Apr 23, 2024	49.9	49	48.3	0.9
Mar 21, 2024	47.7	48.6	48.1	-0.9
Feb 22, 2024	47.7	45	44.6	2.7
Jan 24, 2024	44.2	45.2	44.8	-1
Dec 15, 2023	43.7	45	44.6	-1.3
Nov 23, 2023	44.5	45	44.6	-0.5
Oct 24, 2023	45.3	44.4	44.1	0.9
Sep 22, 2023	43.5	46	46	-2.5
Aug 23, 2023	46.6	47.5	46.6	-0.9
Jul 24, 2023	46.6	47.8	47.2	-1.2
Jun 23, 2023	47.3	51	51.2	-3.7
May 23, 2023	51.4	52.3	52.4	-0.9
Apr 21, 2023	53.8	52.7	52.7	1.1