Germany HCOB Composite PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-1.3

EUR

Actual:

47.3

Forecast: 48.6

Previous/Revision:

48.6

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 47.5

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The HCOB Composite PMI Flash for Germany measures the overall economic activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, providing insight into production, employment, and new orders. It focuses on assessing business conditions and sentiment, crucial for understanding economic momentum, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below indicating contraction on a national level.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, with the preliminary estimate typically published on the first business day of the month following the reporting period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the HCOB Composite PMI Flash as it serves as an early indicator of economic health, affecting financial markets through expectations of growth or contraction. Higher-than-expected results can bolster the Euro and equities, while lower readings may negatively impact currency and stock performance due to diminished growth prospects.

What Is It Derived From?

The HCOB Composite PMI Flash is derived from surveys taken of purchasing managers in both the manufacturing and services sectors, where respondents indicate business conditions such as output and new orders. A weighted diffusion index is used to aggregate responses, providing a comprehensive overview of economic activity.

Description

The HCOB Composite PMI Flash is a critical economic tracker that combines insights from both manufacturing and services, offering a complete picture of Germany's economic health. The indicator is primarily a preliminary report that showcases current economic trends based on timely data, which is crucial for forecasting future performance.

Additional Notes

The HCOB Composite PMI serves as a leading indicator, often reflecting economic trends before they materialize in other statistics, such as GDP growth. Its significance in analyzing business trends makes it integral for understanding broader economic conditions both within Germany and in the European context.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Nov 22, 2024	47.3	48.6	48.6	-1.3
Oct 24, 2024	48.4	47.6	47.5	0.8
Sep 23, 2024	47.2	48.2	48.4	-1
Aug 22, 2024	48.5	49.2	49.1	-0.7
Jul 24, 2024	48.7	50.7	50.4	-2
Jun 21, 2024	50.6	52.7	52.4	-2.1
May 23, 2024	52.2	51	50.6	1.2
Apr 23, 2024	50.5	48.6	47.7	1.9
Mar 21, 2024	47.4	47	46.3	0.4
Feb 22, 2024	46.1	47.5	47	-1.4
Jan 24, 2024	47.1	47.8	47.4	-0.7
Dec 15, 2023	46.7	48.2	47.8	-1.5
Nov 23, 2023	47.1	46.5	45.9	0.6
Oct 24, 2023	45.8	46.7	46.4	-0.9
Sep 22, 2023	46.2	44.8	44.6	1.4
Aug 23, 2023	44.7	48.3	48.5	-3.6
Jul 24, 2023	48.3	50.3	50.6	-2
Jun 23, 2023	50.8	53.5	53.9	-2.7
May 23, 2023	54.3	53.5	54.2	0.8
Apr 21, 2023	53.9	52.7	52.6	1.2