Germany GFK Consumer Confidence

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: GfK Group

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

9.4

Forecast: 9.4

Previous/Revision:

9.6

Period: Nov

What Does It Measure?

The GFK Consumer Confidence Index measures consumer sentiment in Germany, explicitly assessing households' perceptions of their financial situation, willingness to make large purchases, and overall economic outlook. The primary focus is on production, employment, and inflation expectations, with key indicators including the overall index value and its subcomponents, where a value above zero typically signifies optimism or expansion, while below indicates pessimism or contraction; this is a national indicator.

Frequency

The GFK Consumer Confidence Index is released monthly and is considered a preliminary estimate that typically becomes available towards the end of the month for the upcoming month.

Why Do Traders Care?

This index is crucial for financial markets as it offers insights into consumer spending potential, which drives economic growth; a higher-than-expected reading often leads to bullish sentiment for the euro and equities, while lower readings can prompt bearish reactions. Its monthly release is timely for economic forecasts, influencing traders' expectations regarding monetary policy and economic performance.

What Is It Derived From?

The GFK Consumer Confidence Index is derived from a survey of consumers, where around 2,000 respondents are questioned about their financial conditions and future expectations, using a diffusion index methodology that aggregates responses to reflect overall consumer sentiment. The survey assesses various factors, including economic expectations, income prospects, and willingness to purchase durable goods.

Description

Preliminary reports indicate consumer sentiment based on early estimates and are subject to later revisions, whereas final reports reflect a more accurate assessment, released later, and can lead to shifts in market perception. The GFK Consumer Confidence Index typically reports on an index scale measuring sentiment rather than absolute numerical data, with trends representing crucial insights into consumer behavior over time.

Additional Notes

This index is a leading economic indicator, often considered a predictor of consumer spending trends and overall economic health in Germany. It complements other economic data releases, such as retail sales figures and inflation rates, and can provide context on regional sentiments compared to other countries within the Eurozone.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Oct 28, 2015	9.4	9.4	9.6
Sep 24, 2015	9.6	9.8	9.9	-0.2
Aug 21, 2015	9.9	10.1	10.1	-0.2
Jul 29, 2015	10.1	10.1	10.1
Jun 25, 2015	10.1	10.2	10.2	-0.1
May 27, 2015	10.2	10	10.1	0.2