United States GDP Price Index QoQ Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1%

USD

Actual:

2.3%

Forecast: 2.4%

Previous/Revision:

1.9%

Period: Q4

What Does It Measure?

The GDP Price Index measures the changes in price level of all domestically produced goods and services in the United States, serving as an inflation indicator for the entire economy. It focuses on assessing price movements related to the gross domestic product (GDP), highlighting key areas such as consumer spending, business investments, and government expenditures.

Frequency

The GDP Price Index is reported quarterly, with the final figures released approximately 30 days after the end of each quarter as part of the overall GDP report.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the GDP Price Index as it signals inflation trends that can influence monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. Significant changes in the index can impact asset prices, particularly affecting the US dollar, equities, and bonds, as it shapes expectations around interest rate adjustments.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP Price Index is derived from comprehensive national accounts data, which includes figures on personal consumption expenditures, business investments, and government spending. The calculations are conducted using the chain-weighting method, which improves accuracy by accounting for changes in the consumption mix over time.

Description

The GDP Price Index differentiates between preliminary and final reports; preliminary data reflects early estimates that may be revised, while the final figures provide a more accurate depiction of economic performance after all data has been compiled. The release of this index is crucial as it allows for adjustments in market perceptions and expectations around economic growth and inflation, illustrating how closely inflation tracks with overall economic health.

Additional Notes

This index serves as a coincident indicator that provides insight into the current state of the economy, as well as its relationship to trends in employment and production. Comparisons with other indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), further highlight inflationary pressures experienced by consumers versus the broader economic landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates due to inflation concerns is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 27, 2025	2.3%	2.4%	1.9%	-0.1%
Mar 28, 2024	1.7%	1.6%	3.3%	0.1%
Mar 30, 2023	3.9%	3.9%	4.4%
Mar 30, 2022	7.1%	7.2%	5.9%	-0.1%
Mar 25, 2021	1.9%	2%	3.7%	-0.1%
Mar 26, 2020	1.4%	1.3%	1.8%	0.1%
Mar 28, 2019	1.9%	1.8%	1.5%	0.1%
Mar 28, 2018	2.3%	2.3%	2.1%
Mar 30, 2017	2.1%	2%	1.4%	0.1%
Mar 25, 2016	0.9%	0.9%	1.3%