United States GDP Price Index QoQ Adv

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1%

USD

Actual:

1.8%

Forecast: 1.9%

Previous/Revision:

2.5%

Period: Q3

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The United States GDP Price Index measures the price level changes of all goods and services produced domestically within a given time frame. It provides insights into inflation trends by assessing the contribution of price changes to the overall economic output, focusing on key components like consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports.

Frequency

The GDP Price Index is released quarterly, with two different versions, the preliminary estimate and the final figure, typically published one month after the quarter ends.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the GDP Price Index because it serves as a significant indicator of inflationary pressures affecting the U.S. economy, influencing expectations for monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. A higher-than-expected index can lead to currency appreciation (USD) and impact equities and bonds as investors recalibrate their risk and interest rate outlooks.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP Price Index is derived from a comprehensive assessment of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy, utilizing data from various sources, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that collects data on personal consumption expenditures, private investment, and government spending. The index uses a chain-weighted methodology to calculate real GDP and the corresponding price changes over time.

Description

Preliminary reports of the GDP Price Index are based on early estimates and may be subject to revisions, providing timely insights into the economic conditions. In contrast, final reports offer a more accurate reflection, although they are released later, with markets often responding more strongly to preliminary figures due to their immediacy. The index reports on a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) basis, as it effectively captures medium-term economic shifts and trends in price levels, influencing inflationary expectations.

Additional Notes

The GDP Price Index is considered a lagging economic indicator as it reflects past economic activity and prices. It is closely associated with other inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), aiding in the understanding of broader inflationary trends across different economic sectors.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the actual GDP Price Index is higher than expected, it is bullish for the USD and bearish for stocks. Conversely, if it is lower than expected, it would be bearish for the USD and bullish for stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Oct 30, 2024	1.8%	1.9%	2.5%	-0.1%
Jul 25, 2024	2.3%	2.6%	3.1%	-0.3%
Oct 26, 2023	3.5%	2.5%	1.7%	1%
Jul 27, 2023	2.2%	3%	4.1%	-0.8%
Oct 27, 2022	4.1%	5.3%	9.1%	-1.2%
Jul 28, 2022	8.9%	7.9%	8.3%	1%
Oct 28, 2021	5.7%	5.5%	6.2%	0.2%
Jul 29, 2021	6.1%	5.4%	4.3%	0.7%
Oct 29, 2020	3.7%	2.8%	-2.1%	0.9%
Jul 30, 2020	-2.1%	1.1%	1.7%	-3.2%
Oct 30, 2019	1.6%	1.9%	2.6%	-0.3%
Jul 26, 2019	2.5%	1.9%	0.8%	0.6%
Oct 26, 2018	1.4%	2.1%	3.3%	-0.7%
Jul 27, 2018	3%	2.3%	2%	0.7%
Oct 27, 2017	2.1%	2.2%	1%	-0.1%
Jul 28, 2017	1%	1.3%	2%	-0.3%
Oct 28, 2016	1.5%	1.3%	2.3%	0.2%
Jul 29, 2016	2.2%	1.8%	0.5%	0.4%
Oct 29, 2015	1.2%	1.5%	2.1%	-0.3%
Jul 30, 2015	2%	1.5%	0.1%	0.5%