France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1

EUR

Actual:

43.1

Forecast: 43.2

Previous/Revision:

44.5

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 41.9

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final measures the health of the manufacturing sector in France, assessing areas such as production levels, employment, new orders, and supplier deliveries. It focuses on how purchasing managers at manufacturing firms evaluate current business conditions and includes indicators like output, new orders, and inventory levels, with a PMI reading above 50 indicating expansion and below indicating contraction, serving as a national indicator.

Frequency

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final is released monthly, typically on the first working day of the month, providing a final assessment after preliminary estimates have been made.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Manufacturing PMI as it is a leading indicator of economic performance, influencing expectations for growth and monetary policy. Strong PMI data can lead to appreciation in the euro and equity markets, while weaker readings often result in bearish sentiment for currencies and stocks.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from surveys conducted among purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a typical sample size around 300-400 respondents to ensure reliable data. It uses a diffusion index methodology where responses are weighted to create an overall index that reflects changes from the previous month.

Description

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final is regarded as a coincident economic indicator, providing insights into current manufacturing activity and potential future growth trends. This report reflects the final calculations after initial estimates and is crucial for understanding broader economic conditions in France.

Additional Notes

This indicator is often compared with other PMI reports globally and may serve as a leading measure for other economic indicators, reflecting broader economic trends in both France and the Eurozone. Moreover, it is crucial for market participants to discern its implications for future employment, inflation, and central bank policy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

For the most recent release, if the HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final came in higher than expected: Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for Stocks. If lower than expected: Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 02, 2024	43.1	43.2	44.5	-0.1
Nov 04, 2024	44.5	44.5	44.6
Oct 01, 2024	44.6	44	43.9	0.6
Sep 02, 2024	43.9	42.1	44	1.8
Aug 01, 2024	44	44.1	45.4	-0.1
Jul 01, 2024	45.4	45.3	46.4	0.1
Jun 03, 2024	46.4	46.7	45.3	-0.3
May 02, 2024	45.3	44.9	46.2	0.4
Apr 02, 2024	46.2	45.8	47.1	0.4
Mar 01, 2024	47.1	46.8	43.1	0.3
Feb 01, 2024	43.1	43.2	42.1	-0.1
Jan 02, 2024	42.1	42	42.9	0.1
Dec 01, 2023	42.9	42.6	42.8	0.3
Nov 02, 2023	42.8	42.6	44.2	0.2
Oct 02, 2023	44.2	43.6	46	0.6
Sep 01, 2023	46	46.4	45.1	-0.4
Aug 01, 2023	45.1	44.5	46	0.6
Jul 03, 2023	46	45.5	45.7	0.5
Jun 01, 2023	45.7	46.1	45.6	-0.4
May 02, 2023	45.6	45.5	47.3	0.1