United States Fed Kashkari Speech

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Federal Reserve

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The United States Fed Kashkari Speech measures the stance and sentiment of the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, inflation, and economic growth. The primary focus is on the central bank's outlook for interest rates, which can influence financial markets and economic forecasts.

Frequency

This speech is delivered as scheduled and can occur several times a year, typically announced in advance; it is not a report subject to revision.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to this speech because it provides insights into potential shifts in monetary policy that can affect interest rates, and subsequently, asset prices such as currencies, stocks, and bonds. The tone of the speech can lead to immediate market reactions; a hawkish perspective may bolster the dollar, while a dovish one can weaken it.

What Is It Derived From?

The speech is derived from the personal views and analyses of Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, incorporating economic data, research, and trends observed by the Federal Reserve. It reflects a combination of subjective insight and economic indicators that influence monetary policy discussions.

Description

Preliminary versions of Kashkari's comments may be indicated in advance of his speech, typically based on initial topics listed, while the final takeaways become clearer after the speech concludes. This address focuses on the current U.S. economic situation and offers forecasts related to inflation and interest rates.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic measure, the content of Kashkari’s speech can signal potential future actions of the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, making it relevant not only for U.S. markets but also for global economic trends. It may correlate with broader indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, providing context for the overall economic landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

The impact of the speech will depend on the actual content versus the anticipated messaging. If he adopts a hawkish tone indicating potential rate increases, it would be classified as bullish for the USD and could result in bearish sentiment for stocks due to elevated borrowing costs. Conversely, a dovish tone signaling support for lower rates would be viewed as bearish for the USD but bullish for stocks, as it implies easier financial conditions.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise