China Westpac MNI Consumer Sentiment

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

CNY1.6

Actual:

116.6

Forecast: 115

Previous/Revision:

114.9

Period: Jan 2017

What Does It Measure?

The China Westpac MNI Consumer Sentiment index measures the confidence levels of Chinese households regarding their current and future financial situations, thereby providing insights into consumer spending patterns, which are crucial for overall economic performance. It primarily focuses on key areas such as consumer sentiment regarding the economy, personal finance, and employment prospects, with values above 100 indicating positive sentiment and values below 100 indicating negative sentiment; this index is a national indicator.

Frequency

The index is released monthly, typically on the first week of each month, and presents a preliminary estimate that may be revised later.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor this index closely because consumer sentiment is a strong predictor of future consumer spending, which directly influences economic growth; thus, stronger-than-expected readings can lead to bullish sentiment in assets like the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and equities. Conversely, weaker results can trigger bearish reactions, impacting economic forecasts and financial market decisions.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey conducted by MNI (Market News International) in collaboration with Westpac Banking Corporation, which includes responses from a diverse group of households across China regarding their spending outlook and economic expectations. The survey uses a diffusion index method where responses are weighted to create a composite score reflecting overall consumer sentiment.

Description

The China Westpac MNI Consumer Sentiment index reports consumer views on a variety of economic factors, including their financial situation, expected spending habits, and overall economic outlook. It serves as a timely economic barometer, reflecting changes in consumer confidence that can lead to adjustments in spending and investment, making it a vital component for assessing economic health.

Additional Notes

This index is considered a leading economic indicator since it signals potential changes in consumer behavior ahead of actual economic activity, providing insights into broader trends in consumer confidence both locally and in relation to global economic conditions. It often correlates with other sentiment measures and can help economies anticipate inflationary pressures or slowdowns.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the actual value is higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks. If the actual value is lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jan 04, 2017	116.6	115	114.9	1.6
Nov 30, 2016	114.9	116.19	117.1	-1.29
Oct 26, 2016	117.1	114.67	115.2	2.43