Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Actual:

49.5

Forecast: 49.5

Previous/Revision:

49.8

Period: Jun 2019

What Does It Measure?

The Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash measures the performance of the manufacturing sector within Japan's economy. It primarily focuses on factors such as production, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times, with key indicators including the overall PMI score where a value above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 signals contraction.

Frequency

The report is released on a monthly basis, typically as a preliminary estimate that is published on the first business day of the month following the reference month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash because it serves as an early indicator of the health of Japan's manufacturing sector, influencing expectations for economic growth. Stronger-than-expected results can be bullish for the Japanese yen and equities, while disappointing figures may prompt bearish sentiment in these markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from a survey conducted among purchasing managers at various manufacturing firms, gathering data on production levels, new orders, and employment. The survey involves a sampling of approximately 400 companies and employs a diffusion index methodology to quantify the deviations in economic conditions.

Description

Preliminary reports are based on early estimates and offer timely insights into manufacturing trends, whereas final reports provide more accurate data reflecting revisions made after additional responses are collected. This PMI uses a month-over-month (MoM) comparison to capture the latest sentiment changes quickly, although year-over-year (YoY) comparisons are also relevant for understanding longer-term trends.

Additional Notes

The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash is often viewed as a leading economic indicator, providing valuable insights into future manufacturing activity and overall economic conditions in Japan. It is closely watched alongside other regional indicators, such as the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, to gauge comprehensive trends in the manufacturing sector.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 21, 2019	49.5	49.5	49.8
May 23, 2019	49.6	49.6	50.2
Apr 18, 2019	49.5	49.5	49.2
Mar 22, 2019	48.9	48.9	48.9
Feb 21, 2019	48.5	48.5	50.3
Jan 24, 2019	50	50	52.6
Dec 14, 2018	52.4	52.4	52.2
Nov 26, 2018	51.8	51.8	52.9
Oct 24, 2018	53.1	53.1	52.5
Sep 21, 2018	52.9	52.9	52.5
Aug 23, 2018	52.5	52.5	52.3
Jul 24, 2018	51.6	51.6	53
Jun 22, 2018	53.1	52.6	52.8	0.5
May 23, 2018	52.5	53.6	53.3	-1.1
Apr 23, 2018	53.3	53.4	53.1	-0.1
Mar 22, 2018	53.2	54.3	54.1	-1.1
Feb 21, 2018	54	54	54.8
Jan 24, 2018	54.4	54.4	54
Dec 14, 2017	54.2	54.2	53.6
Nov 24, 2017	53.8	52.6	52.8	1.2
Oct 24, 2017	52.5	52.5	52.5
Sep 25, 2017	52.6	52.6	52.6
Aug 23, 2017	52.8	52.3	52.1	0.5
Jul 24, 2017	52.2	51.9	52.4	0.3
Jun 23, 2017	52	53.4	53.1	-1.4
May 23, 2017	52	52.8	52.7	-0.8
Apr 21, 2017	52.8	52.3	52.4	0.5
Mar 24, 2017	52.6	53.5	53.3	-0.9
Feb 21, 2017	53.5	52.1	52.7	1.4
Jan 24, 2017	52.8	52.3	52.4	0.5
Dec 15, 2016	51.9	51.5	51.3	0.4
Nov 24, 2016	51.1	51.7	51.4	-0.6
Oct 24, 2016	51.7	50.6	50.4	1.1
Sep 23, 2016	50.3	49.3	49.5	1
Aug 23, 2016	49.6	49.5	49.3	0.1
Jul 22, 2016	49	48.3	48.1	0.7
Jun 23, 2016	47.8	48.2	47.7	-0.4
May 23, 2016	47.6	50.1	48.2	-2.5
Apr 22, 2016	48	49.5	49.1	-1.5
Mar 22, 2016	49.1	50.6	50.1	-1.5
Feb 22, 2016	50.2	52	52.3	-1.8
Jan 22, 2016	52.4	52.8	52.6	-0.4
Dec 16, 2015	52.5	52.5	52.6
Nov 24, 2015	52.8	52.1	52.4	0.7
Oct 23, 2015	52.5	50.6	51	1.9
Sep 24, 2015	50.9	51.65	51.7	-0.75
Aug 21, 2015	51.9	51.49	51.2	0.41
Jul 24, 2015	51.4	49.7	50.1	1.7