Italy HCOB Services PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

EUR-2

EUR

Actual:

49.2

Forecast: 51.2

Previous/Revision:

52.4

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 50.3

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Italy HCOB Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) measures the economic health of the services sector within Italy, focusing on various components such as business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. It provides crucial insights into the service industry's performance, with a value above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The Italy HCOB Services PMI is released monthly, typically on the third business day of the month as a preliminary estimate based on survey responses from a range of service sector firms.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Italy HCOB Services PMI as it serves as an indicator of economic activity and growth prospects in Italy, influencing financial markets significantly. A stronger-than-expected PMI can boost confidence in the Eurozone economy, positively affecting the euro (EUR) and equities, while weaker figures can have the opposite effect.

What Is It Derived From?

The HCOB Services PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the services sector, specifically sampling around 300 firms to gather data on business conditions. The calculation involves a diffusion index methodology, where responses about increased or decreased activity are weighted and aggregated to produce the final index.

Description

The HCOB Services PMI is a forward-looking indicator that provides insights into trends within the service sector, assessing factors such as growth, employment and price trends. It is presented as a diffusion index, where a reading above 50 signals expansion compared to the previous month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic indicator, the Italy HCOB Services PMI can forecast future economic activity, showing trends that align with broader economic conditions in Italy and the Eurozone. It is often compared to other indicators, such as the Manufacturing PMI, to provide a comprehensive view of economic health.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the PMI is higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. If the PMI is lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	49.2	51.2	52.4	-2
Nov 06, 2024	52.4	50.5	50.5	1.9
Oct 03, 2024	50.5	51	51.4	-0.5
Sep 04, 2024	51.4	52.6	51.7	-1.2
Aug 05, 2024	51.7	52.9	53.7	-1.2
Jul 03, 2024	53.7	53.7	54.2
Jun 05, 2024	54.2	54.4	54.3	-0.2
May 06, 2024	54.3	54.7	54.6	-0.4
Apr 04, 2024	54.6	53.2	52.2	1.4
Mar 05, 2024	52.2	52.3	51.2	-0.1
Feb 05, 2024	51.2	50.8	49.8	0.4
Jan 04, 2024	49.8	49.8	49.5
Dec 05, 2023	49.5	48.2	47.7	1.3
Nov 06, 2023	47.7	48.5	49.9	-0.8
Oct 04, 2023	49.9	50	49.8	-0.1
Sep 05, 2023	49.8	50.5	51.5	-0.7
Aug 03, 2023	51.5	52.2	52.2	-0.7
Jul 05, 2023	52.2	53	54	-0.8
Jun 05, 2023	54	57	57.6	-3
May 04, 2023	57.6	56.5	55.7	1.1