United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Surprise:

USD6.4

USD

Actual:

-8.1

Forecast: -14.5

Previous/Revision:

-20

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: -10

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index measures the general business conditions in the manufacturing sector of New York State, focusing specifically on production levels, employment, and new orders among manufacturing firms. It serves as a regional indicator that reflects the health of manufacturing activities and is considered a barometer of economic growth prospects.

Frequency

The index is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, providing a preliminary estimate that is subject to revisions in later reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the index closely because it is viewed as an early indicator of manufacturing activity, influencing economic forecasts and impacting financial markets. A higher-than-expected index reading can be bullish for the USD and equities, while weaker results may lead to bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of approximately 200 manufacturing executives in New York, where respondents rate business conditions, production levels, and employment trends. The results are calculated using a diffusion index methodology, where positive responses are weighted to generate an overall index score.

Description

The Empire State Manufacturing Index publishes preliminary data reflecting early estimates of manufacturing conditions, reflecting immediate business sentiment in the sector. Financial markets often react to this preliminary information due to its timely insights, although final figures may later adjust perceptions based on more accurate data.

Additional Notes

The index is often seen as a leading indicator, providing insights into broader economic performance in the manufacturing sector. It can also be compared with national indicators like the ISM Manufacturing Index to assess regional economic trends within the context of the overall economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 15, 2025	-8.1	-14.5	-20	6.4
Mar 17, 2025	-20	-0.75	5.7	-19.25
Feb 18, 2025	5.7	-1	-12.6	6.7
Jan 15, 2025	-12.6	3	2.1	-15.6
Dec 16, 2024	0.2	12	31.2	-11.8
Nov 15, 2024	31.2	-0.7	-11.9	31.9
Oct 15, 2024	-11.9	3.8	11.5	-15.7
Sep 16, 2024	11.5	-3.9	-4.7	15.4
Aug 15, 2024	-4.7	-6	-6.6	1.3
Jul 15, 2024	-6.6	-6	-6	-0.6
Jun 17, 2024	-6	-9	-15.6	3
May 15, 2024	-15.6	-10	-14.3	-5.6
Apr 15, 2024	-14.3	-9	-20.9	-5.3
Mar 15, 2024	-20.9	-7	-2.4	-13.9
Feb 15, 2024	-2.4	-15	-43.7	12.6
Jan 16, 2024	-43.7	-5	-14.5	-38.7
Dec 15, 2023	-14.5	2	9.1	-16.5
Nov 15, 2023	9.1	-2.8	-4.6	11.9
Oct 16, 2023	-4.6	-7	1.9	2.4
Sep 15, 2023	1.9	-10	-19	11.9
Aug 15, 2023	-19	-1	1.1	-18
Jul 17, 2023	1.1	-4.3	6.6	5.4
Jun 15, 2023	6.6	-15.1	-31.8	21.7
May 15, 2023	-31.8	-3.75	10.8	-28.05
Apr 17, 2023	10.8	-18	-24.6	28.8
Mar 15, 2023	-24.6	-8	-5.8	-16.6
Feb 15, 2023	-5.8	-18	-32.9	12.2
Jan 17, 2023	-32.9	-9	-11.2	-23.9
Dec 15, 2022	-11.2	-1	4.5	-10.2
Nov 15, 2022	4.5	-5	-9.1	9.5
Oct 17, 2022	-9.1	-4	-1.5	-5.1
Sep 15, 2022	-1.5	-13	-31.3	11.5
Aug 15, 2022	-31.3	5	11.1	-36.3
Jul 15, 2022	11.1	-2	-1.2	13.1
Jun 15, 2022	-1.2	3	-11.6	-4.2
May 16, 2022	-11.6	17	24.6	-28.6
Apr 15, 2022	24.6	0.5	-11.8	24.1
Mar 15, 2022	-11.8	7	3.1	-18.8
Feb 15, 2022	3.1	12.15	-0.7	-9.05
Jan 18, 2022	-0.7	25	31.9	-25.7
Dec 15, 2021	31.9	25	30.9	6.9
Nov 15, 2021	30.9	21.2	19.8	9.7
Oct 15, 2021	19.8	27	34.3	-7.2
Sep 15, 2021	34.3	18	18.3	16.3
Aug 16, 2021	18.3	29	43	-10.7
Jul 15, 2021	43	18	17.4	25
Jun 15, 2021	17.4	23	24.3	-5.6
May 17, 2021	24.3	23.9	26.3	0.4
Apr 15, 2021	26.3	19.5	17.4	6.8
Mar 15, 2021	17.4	14.5	12.1	2.9
Feb 16, 2021	12.1	6	3.5	6.1
Jan 15, 2021	3.5	6	4.9	-2.5
Dec 15, 2020	4.9	6.9	6.3	-2
Nov 16, 2020	6.3	12.75	10.5	-6.45
Oct 15, 2020	10.5	15	17	-4.5
Sep 15, 2020	17	6	3.7	11
Aug 17, 2020	3.7	15	17.2	-11.3
Jul 15, 2020	17.2	10	-0.2	7.2
Jun 15, 2020	-0.2	-29.8	-48.5	29.6
May 15, 2020	-48.5	-63.5	-78.2	15
Apr 15, 2020	-78.2	-35	-21.5	-43.2
Mar 16, 2020	-21.5	4.4	12.9	-25.9
Feb 18, 2020	12.9	5	4.8	7.9
Jan 15, 2020	4.8	3.55	3.3	1.25
Dec 16, 2019	3.5	4	2.9	-0.5
Nov 15, 2019	2.9	5	4	-2.1
Oct 14, 2019	4	1	2	3
Sep 16, 2019	2	4	4.8	-2
Aug 15, 2019	4.8	3	4.3	1.8
Jul 15, 2019	4.3	2	-8.6	2.3
Jun 17, 2019	-8.6	10	17.8	-18.6
May 15, 2019	17.8	8.5	10.1	9.3
Apr 15, 2019	10.1	6.7	3.7	3.4
Mar 15, 2019	3.7	10	8.8	-6.3
Feb 15, 2019	8.8	7	3.9	1.8
Jan 15, 2019	3.9	10.75	11.5	-6.85
Dec 17, 2018	10.9	20	23.3	-9.1
Nov 15, 2018	23.3	20	21.1	3.3
Oct 15, 2018	21.1	19	19	2.1
Sep 17, 2018	19	23	25.6	-4
Aug 15, 2018	25.6	20	22.6	5.6
Jul 16, 2018	22.6	22	25	0.6
Jun 15, 2018	25	19	20.1	6
May 15, 2018	20.1	15	15.8	5.1
Apr 16, 2018	15.8	18.8	22.5	-3
Mar 15, 2018	22.5	15.2	13.1	7.3
Feb 15, 2018	13.1	17.5	17.7	-4.4
Jan 16, 2018	17.7	12	19.6	5.7
Dec 15, 2017	18	18.6	19.4	-0.6
Nov 15, 2017	19.4	26	30.2	-6.6
Oct 16, 2017	30.2	20.7	24.4	9.5
Sep 15, 2017	24.4	19	25.2	5.4
Aug 15, 2017	25.2	10	9.8	15.2
Jul 17, 2017	9.8	15	19.8	-5.2
Jun 15, 2017	19.8	4	-1	15.8
May 15, 2017	-1	7	5.2	-8
Apr 17, 2017	5.2	15	16.4	-9.8
Mar 15, 2017	16.4	15	18.7	1.4
Feb 15, 2017	18.7	7	6.5	11.7
Jan 17, 2017	6.5	8.5	7.6	-2
Dec 15, 2016	9	4	1.5	5
Nov 15, 2016	1.5	-2.5	-6.8	4
Oct 17, 2016	-6.8	1	-1.99	-7.8
Sep 15, 2016	-1.99	-1	-4.21	-0.99
Aug 15, 2016	-4.21	2.5	0.55	-6.71
Jul 15, 2016	0.55	5	6.01	-4.45
Jun 15, 2016	6.01	-4	-9.02	10.01
May 16, 2016	-9.02	6.5	9.56	-15.52
Apr 15, 2016	9.56	2.21	0.62	7.35
Mar 15, 2016	0.62	-10	-16.64	10.62
Feb 16, 2016	-16.64	-10	-19.37	-6.64
Jan 15, 2016	-19.37	-4	-6.21	-15.37
Dec 15, 2015	-4.59	-6	-10.74	1.41
Nov 16, 2015	-10.74	-6.25	-11.36	-4.49
Oct 15, 2015	-11.36	-8	-14.67	-3.36
Sep 15, 2015	-14.67	-0.75	-14.92	-13.92
Aug 17, 2015	-14.92	5	3.86	-19.92
Jul 15, 2015	3.86	3	-1.98	0.86
Jun 15, 2015	-1.98	6	3.09	-7.98
May 15, 2015	3.09	5	-1.19	-1.91