China MNI Business Sentiment Indicator

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

CNY3.12

Actual:

55.9

Forecast: 52.78

Previous/Revision:

53.1

Period: Dec 2016

What Does It Measure?

The China MNI Business Sentiment Indicator measures the overall sentiment and confidence among businesses in China, focusing on aspects such as production expectations, new orders, and employment levels. This indicator primarily assesses the outlook for economic activity and business performance on a national scale, with key indicators including the index value above 50 representing expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The China MNI Business Sentiment Indicator is released monthly, typically published in the first week of the month and reflecting the previous month’s sentiment, providing preliminary estimates that may later be revised.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this indicator as it serves as a key gauge of business confidence and future economic conditions in China, impacting financial markets through asset prices such as the Chinese yuan and associated equities. A higher than expected reading is generally viewed as bullish for currencies and stocks, while lower readings may provoke negative market reactions and adjustments in economic forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The indicator is derived from a survey of Chinese businesses, encompassing a wide range of sectors including manufacturing and services. The methodology involves collecting responses on various aspects of business performance and expectations, and it utilizes a diffusion index format where data points indicate positive or negative sentiment among participants.

Description

The China MNI Business Sentiment Indicator is a valuable measure for assessing the short-term economic outlook in China, providing insights into business conditions and likely future trends. It is widely regarded as a leading indicator of economic activity, influencing market expectations regarding China's economic performance and potential policy responses.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a leading economic measure, aligning closely with broader trends in manufacturing and purchasing intentions within the Chinese economy. It is often compared to other sentiment and activity indices, providing context for analysts assessing economic momentum both domestically and in relation to global markets.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 23, 2016	55.9	52.78	53.1	3.12
Nov 23, 2016	53.1	53.04	52.2	0.06
Oct 21, 2016	52.2	54.83	55.8	-2.63
Sep 23, 2016	55.8	54.16	54.1	1.64
Aug 23, 2016	54.3	55.11	55.5	-0.81
Jul 22, 2016	55.5	53.23	54.5	2.27
Jun 23, 2016	54.5	50.34	50	4.16
May 19, 2016	50	50.58	50.5	-0.58
Apr 22, 2016	50.5	49.94	49.9	0.56
Mar 21, 2016	49.9	49.9	49.9
Feb 22, 2016	49.9		52.3