China Industrial Production YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

2.1%

CNY

Actual:

7.7%

Forecast: 5.6%

Previous/Revision:

5.9%

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: 5.5%

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

China's Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) measures the output of China's factories, mines, and utilities, assessing the overall health of the manufacturing sector and its contribution to the economy. This indicator primarily focuses on production levels, reflecting changes in consumer demand and production capacity, with key indicators including total production output, growth rates, and sectoral contributions.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis, typically around the 12th of each month, providing preliminary estimates that may be revised in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor China's Industrial Production as it has significant implications for global supply chains and trade dynamics, influencing the value of currencies, commodities, and equities. Higher-than-expected production figures generally signal economic strength, which can boost the Chinese yuan and commodities, whereas lower figures can indicate economic slowdown, negatively impacting market sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The Industrial Production YoY is derived from national data on industrial output provided by various governmental agencies, including the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This calculation involves a comprehensive survey of industrial enterprises, employing methods such as output indices and reporting from a large sample of firms within the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors.

Description

Preliminary reports of Industrial Production provide early insights based on incomplete data, which can be updated in final reports that offer a more comprehensive assessment. The YoY reporting method is preferred as it smooths out seasonal fluctuations and provides insights into long-term economic trends by comparing current production to the same period in the previous year.

Additional Notes

Industrial Production is considered a coincident economic indicator, as it reflects the current state of economic activity within the manufacturing sector. This data serves as a leading indicator of economic trends and is often compared with other metrics like GDP growth to gauge the overall health of the Chinese economy and its impact on global markets.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for the yuan, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 16, 2025	7.7%	5.6%	5.9%	2.1%
Mar 17, 2025	5.9%	5.3%	6.2%	0.6%
Jan 17, 2025	6.2%	5.4%	5.4%	0.8%
Dec 16, 2024	5.4%	5.3%	5.3%	0.1%
Nov 15, 2024	5.3%	5.6%	5.4%	-0.3%
Oct 18, 2024	5.4%	4.6%	4.5%	0.8%
Sep 14, 2024	4.5%	4.8%	5.1%	-0.3%
Aug 15, 2024	5.1%	5.2%	5.3%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2024	5.3%	5%	5.6%	0.3%
Jun 17, 2024	5.6%	6%	6.7%	-0.4%
May 17, 2024	6.7%	5.5%	4.5%	1.2%
Apr 16, 2024	4.5%	5.4%	7%	-0.9%
Mar 18, 2024	7%	5%	6.8%	2%
Jan 17, 2024	6.8%	6.6%	6.6%	0.2%
Dec 15, 2023	6.6%	5.6%	4.6%	1%
Nov 15, 2023	4.6%	4.4%	4.5%	0.2%
Oct 18, 2023	4.5%	4.3%	4.5%	0.2%
Sep 15, 2023	4.5%	3.9%	3.7%	0.6%
Aug 15, 2023	3.7%	4.4%	4.4%	-0.7%
Jul 17, 2023	4.4%	2.7%	3.5%	1.7%
Jun 15, 2023	3.5%	3.6%	5.6%	-0.1%
May 16, 2023	5.6%	10.9%	3.9%	-5.3%
Apr 18, 2023	3.9%	4%	2.4%	-0.1%
Mar 15, 2023	2.4%	2.6%	1.3%	-0.2%
Jan 17, 2023	1.3%	0.2%	2.2%	1.1%
Dec 15, 2022	2.2%	3.6%	5%	-1.4%
Nov 15, 2022	5%	5.2%	6.3%	-0.2%
Oct 24, 2022	6.3%	4.5%	4.2%	1.8%
Sep 16, 2022	4.2%	3.8%	3.8%	0.4%
Aug 15, 2022	3.8%	4.6%	3.9%	-0.8%
Jul 15, 2022	3.9%	4.1%	0.7%	-0.2%
Jun 15, 2022	0.7%	-0.7%	-2.9%	1.4%
May 16, 2022	-2.9%	0.4%	5%	-3.3%
Apr 18, 2022	5%	4.5%	7.5%	0.5%
Mar 15, 2022	7.5%	3.9%	4.3%	3.6%
Jan 17, 2022	4.3%	3.6%	3.8%	0.7%
Dec 15, 2021	3.8%	3.6%	3.5%	0.2%
Nov 15, 2021	3.5%	3%	3.1%	0.5%
Oct 18, 2021	3.1%	4.5%	5.3%	-1.4%
Sep 15, 2021	5.3%	5.8%	6.4%	-0.5%
Aug 16, 2021	6.4%	7.8%	8.3%	-1.4%
Jul 15, 2021	8.3%	7.8%	8.8%	0.5%
Jun 16, 2021	8.8%	9%	9.8%	-0.2%
May 17, 2021	9.8%	9.8%	14.1%
Apr 16, 2021	14.1%	17.2%	35.1%	-3.1%
Mar 15, 2021	35.1%	30%	7.3%	5.1%
Jan 18, 2021	7.3%	6.9%	7%	0.4%
Dec 15, 2020	7%	7%	6.9%
Nov 16, 2020	6.9%	6.5%	6.9%	0.4%
Oct 19, 2020	6.9%	5.8%	5.6%	1.1%
Sep 15, 2020	5.6%	5.1%	4.8%	0.5%
Aug 14, 2020	4.8%	5.1%	4.8%	-0.3%
Jul 16, 2020	4.8%	4.7%	4.4%	0.1%
Jun 15, 2020	4.4%	5%	3.9%	-0.6%
May 15, 2020	3.9%	1.5%	-1.1%	2.4%
Apr 17, 2020	-1.1%	-7.3%	-13.5%	6.2%
Mar 16, 2020	-13.5%	1.5%	6.9%	-15%
Jan 17, 2020	6.9%	5.9%	6.2%	1%
Dec 16, 2019	6.2%	5%	4.7%	1.2%
Nov 14, 2019	4.7%	5.4%	5.8%	-0.7%
Oct 18, 2019	5.8%	5%	4.4%	0.8%
Sep 16, 2019	4.4%	5.2%	4.8%	-0.8%
Aug 14, 2019	4.8%	5.8%	6.3%	-1%
Jul 15, 2019	6.3%	5.2%	5%	1.1%
Jun 14, 2019	5%	5.5%	5.4%	-0.5%
May 15, 2019	5.4%	6.5%	8.5%	-1.1%
Apr 17, 2019	8.5%	5.9%	5.3%	2.6%
Mar 14, 2019	5.3%	5.5%	5.7%	-0.2%
Jan 21, 2019	5.7%	5.3%	5.4%	0.4%
Dec 14, 2018	5.4%	5.9%	5.9%	-0.5%
Nov 14, 2018	5.9%	5.7%	5.8%	0.2%
Oct 19, 2018	5.8%	6%	6.1%	-0.2%
Sep 14, 2018	6.1%	6%	6%	0.1%
Aug 14, 2018	6%	6.3%	6%	-0.3%
Jul 16, 2018	6%	6.5%	6.8%	-0.5%
Jun 14, 2018	6.8%	6.9%	7%	-0.1%
May 15, 2018	7%	6.3%	6%	0.7%
Apr 17, 2018	6%	6.4%	7.2%	-0.4%
Mar 14, 2018	7.2%	6.1%	6.2%	1.1%
Jan 18, 2018	6.2%	6%	6.1%	0.2%
Dec 14, 2017	6.1%	6.2%	6.2%	-0.1%
Nov 14, 2017	6.2%	6.3%	6.6%	-0.1%
Oct 19, 2017	6.6%	6.2%	6%	0.4%
Sep 14, 2017	6%	6.6%	6.4%	-0.6%
Aug 14, 2017	6.4%	7.2%	7.6%	-0.8%
Jul 17, 2017	7.6%	6.5%	6.5%	1.1%
Jun 14, 2017	6.5%	6.3%	6.5%	0.2%
May 15, 2017	6.5%	7.1%	7.6%	-0.6%
Apr 17, 2017	7.6%	6.3%	6.3%	1.3%
Mar 14, 2017	6.3%	6.2%	6%	0.1%
Jan 20, 2017	6%	6.1%	6.2%	-0.1%
Dec 13, 2016	6.2%	6.1%	6.1%	0.1%
Nov 14, 2016	6.1%	6.2%	6.1%	-0.1%
Oct 19, 2016	6.1%	6.4%	6.3%	-0.3%
Sep 13, 2016	6.3%	6.1%	6%	0.2%
Aug 12, 2016	6%	6.1%	6.2%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2016	6.2%	5.9%	6%	0.3%
Jun 13, 2016	6%	5.9%	6%	0.1%
May 14, 2016	6%	6.5%	6.8%	-0.5%
Apr 15, 2016	6.8%	5.9%	5.4%	0.9%
Mar 12, 2016	5.4%	5.6%	5.9%	-0.2%
Jan 19, 2016	5.9%	6%	6.2%	-0.1%
Dec 12, 2015	6.2%	5.6%	5.6%	0.6%
Nov 11, 2015	5.6%	5.8%	5.7%	-0.2%
Oct 19, 2015	5.7%	6%	6.1%	-0.3%
Sep 13, 2015	6.1%	6.4%	6%	-0.3%
Aug 12, 2015	6%	6.6%	6.8%	-0.6%
Jul 15, 2015	6.8%	6%	6.1%	0.8%
Jun 11, 2015	6.1%	6%	5.9%	0.1%
May 13, 2015	5.9%	6%	5.6%	-0.1%