Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

AUD-5.3

AUD

Actual:

44.7

Forecast: 50

Previous/Revision:

49.6

Period: Nov 2022

What Does It Measure?

The Ai Group Manufacturing Index measures the growth or contraction of the manufacturing sector in Australia, providing insights on production levels, employment trends, and business conditions within this crucial segment of the economy. It focuses on key areas such as new orders, inventory levels, production, and employment, with a value above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 signaling contraction.

Frequency

The Ai Group Manufacturing Index is released monthly, usually on the first business day of the month, and it provides a preliminary estimate based on survey responses from the previous month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Ai Group Manufacturing Index due to its implications for economic health and potential influence on monetary policy, as it can significantly affect the Australian dollar and equity markets. Positive results tend to strengthen the AUD and boost stock prices, while weaker outcomes could lead to bear markets in these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector who provide data on various aspects of business operations, such as production levels, new orders, and employment. This survey typically includes a broad sample of manufacturers across Australia to ensure a comprehensive overview of industry conditions.

Description

Preliminary reports reflect early estimates based on the survey responses and can be subject to revisions in final data releases. The finalized reports offer a more accurate perspective on manufacturing activity and may lead to adjustments in market sentiments as new information emerges.

Additional Notes

The Ai Group Manufacturing Index serves as a leading indicator of economic activity related to manufacturing, with potential predictive power for broader economic trends. Its performance may be compared with other indices, such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics' manufacturing output statistics, to provide further context on the health of the economy.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Nov 30, 2022	44.7	50	49.6	-5.3
Nov 01, 2022	49.6	49.4	50.2	0.2
Oct 03, 2022	50.2	48.5	49.3	1.7
Aug 31, 2022	49.3	51	52.5	-1.7
Jul 31, 2022	52.5	53	54	-0.5
Jun 30, 2022	54	52	52.4	2
May 31, 2022	52.4	56	58.5	-3.6
May 01, 2022	58.5	55.4	55.7	3.1
Mar 31, 2022	55.7	53.5	53.2	2.2
Feb 28, 2022	53.2	51.9	48.4	1.3
Jan 31, 2022	48.4	53.1	54.8	-4.7
Nov 30, 2021	54.8	51.4	50.4	3.4
Oct 31, 2021	50.4	53	51.2	-2.6
Sep 30, 2021	51.2	54	51.6	-2.8
Aug 31, 2021	51.6	55	60.8	-3.4
Aug 01, 2021	60.8	63	63.2	-2.2
Jun 30, 2021	63.2	62	61.8	1.2
May 31, 2021	61.8	62	61.7	-0.2
May 02, 2021	61.7	60	59.9	1.7
Mar 31, 2021	59.9	58	58.8	1.9
Feb 28, 2021	58.8	54	55.3	4.8
Jan 31, 2021	55.3	52	52.1	3.3
Nov 30, 2020	52.1	56.5	56.3	-4.4
Nov 01, 2020	56.3	47	46.7	9.3
Sep 30, 2020	46.7	49.7	49.3	-3
Aug 31, 2020	49.3	52.9	53.5	-3.6
Aug 02, 2020	53.5	52	51.5	1.5
Jun 30, 2020	51.5	44	41.6	7.5
May 31, 2020	41.6	35	35.8	6.6
Apr 30, 2020	35.8	46	53.7	-10.2
Mar 31, 2020	53.7	38	44.3	15.7
Mar 01, 2020	44.3	44	45.4	0.3
Feb 02, 2020	45.4	48	48.3	-2.6
Jan 05, 2020	48.3	48.8	48.1	-0.5