United States Fed Chair Powell Speech

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Apr 2018

What Does It Measure?

The speech delivered by the United States Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, measures the Fed's monetary policy stance, economic outlook, and financial stability concerns. It primarily focuses on inflation, employment conditions, and the overall economic growth of the U.S. economy, providing key insights that influence market expectations and sentiment.

Frequency

The Fed Chair's speeches are typically scheduled at various times throughout the year, with no fixed frequency, and can occur as preliminary comments or final addresses, often coinciding with significant economic events or meetings.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor Powell's speeches because they can have substantial implications for financial markets, particularly for currencies, equities, and bonds. Key statements regarding interest rate policy or economic forecasts can prompt immediate market reactions, influencing trader sentiment and investment decisions.

What Is It Derived From?

The content of Powell's speeches is usually derived from a combination of economic data analyses, feedback from Federal Reserve officials, and assessments of domestic and international economic conditions. The speeches are crafted based on research and economic indicators that shape the Fed's monetary policy directives.

Description

Preliminary speeches may indicate the Fed's immediate perspective on economic trends, while final remarks encapsulate a more comprehensive and reflective view based on broader analysis. Market participants often react strongly to any unanticipated comments regarding inflation or interest rates, which can lead to volatility in asset prices.

Additional Notes

Powell's speeches are typically considered coincident indicators that reflect current economic conditions and expectations, often correlating with other economic reports. These speeches can signal shifts in monetary policy that may affect market dynamics, influencing traders' strategies and anticipations regarding interest rates and economic health.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the speech implies a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, it could be interpreted as: higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Conversely, if it suggests a dovish tone, then: lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise