Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jun 2015

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin measures the overall economic conditions and outlook for the Eurozone, particularly assessing components such as production, employment, inflation, and financial stability. It focuses on identifying trends and providing insights that inform monetary policy decisions by evaluating various economic indicators, including GDP growth, consumer price index, and labor market metrics.

Frequency

The Economic Bulletin is released quarterly, typically published on a specific date within the first few weeks following the end of each quarter, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic situation during that period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the European Central Bank's Economic Bulletin because it influences expectations regarding monetary policy and the direction of Eurozone interest rates. Strong economic indicators from the bulletin can result in bullish sentiments for the euro and European stocks, while weaker data may induce bearish trends.

What Is It Derived From?

The bulletin is derived from a wide range of economic data collected through surveys and reports from various stakeholders, including businesses, economists, and statistical agencies. The ECB employs standardized methodologies to compute and synthesize this data, ensuring accuracy and reliability in the assessment of economic health.

Description

The ECB Economic Bulletin presents both preliminary and final reports, where preliminary data is based on early estimates and subject to subsequent revisions, while final data offers a more accurate representation of economic conditions, released later. The markets often react strongly to the preliminary figures due to their timely release, although final reports can also lead to adjustments in market sentiment as they consolidate the findings.

Additional Notes

This economic bulletin serves as a coincident indicator, reflecting the current state of the Eurozone economy and offering insights that can help predict future trends. It is important to consider the bulletin's findings in relation to other economic reports globally, especially when assessing the Eurozone's performance compared to other major economies.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise