United States Fed Brainard Speech

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jul 2015

What Does It Measure?

The United States Fed Brainard Speech measures insights and signals regarding monetary policy, economic outlook, and potential future interest rate changes as expressed by Lael Brainard, an influential member of the Federal Reserve. The primary focus is on key economic components such as inflation, employment, and overall economic growth, which are crucial in shaping the direction of monetary policy.

Frequency

The speech occurs irregularly, typically aligning with important economic events, conferences, or policy meetings, and is released as a formal address without a preliminary estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to such speeches as they can provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy direction, affecting financial markets across various asset classes. Depending on the tone and content, the speech may lead to fluctuations in the value of the U.S. Dollar, stock indices, and bond yields, influencing overall market sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The content of the Fed Brainard Speech is derived from a combination of economic data analysis, Federal Reserve research, and personal views of the speaker on the current and future state of the economy. This includes insights based on recent economic reports, trends, and forecasts relevant to inflation and employment conditions.

Description

The Fed Brainard Speech serves as an essential communication tool for the Federal Reserve, offering guidance on current economic conditions and the stance of monetary policy. While the speech does not provide numeric forecasts, its implications can be significant, especially regarding public expectations of future interest rates and economic growth.

Additional Notes

This speech is often seen as a leading indicator for market sentiment as it reflects the Fed's ongoing assessment of economic conditions. Its relevance is not only confined to the U.S. economy but also affects global markets, especially given the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

A dovish tone from the speech, signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bullish for the Currency but bearish for Stocks due to lower borrowing costs, which may reduce investors' confidence in equity markets.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise