New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

NZD

Actual:

3.5%

Forecast: 3.5%

Previous/Revision:

3.75%

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: 3.25%

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision measures the central bank's monetary policy stance regarding the official cash rate (OCR), primarily assessing the conditions influencing inflation, employment, and economic growth within New Zealand. It is a national indicator that directly influences the cost of borrowing, investment levels, and overall economic activity.

Frequency

The interest rate decision is released on a scheduled basis, typically every six weeks, and consists of a final figure that is published without preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the RBNZ interest rate decision closely because it signals the central bank's outlook on economic conditions, which can have substantial implications for the New Zealand dollar (NZD), domestic equities, and bond markets. A higher interest rate usually supports a stronger currency by attracting foreign investment, while lower rates may have the opposite effect.

What Is It Derived From?

The decision on the OCR is derived from a comprehensive evaluation of various economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment figures, consumer confidence, and global economic conditions. The RBNZ conducts rigorous economic analysis and internal modeling, leveraging data from diverse sources and surveys, to inform their monetary policy framework.

Description

The RBNZ interest rate decision is a critical element of the central bank's monetary policy toolkit, influencing lending rates across the economy. It reflects the RBNZ's stance on whether to tighten or ease monetary policy depending on economic indicators, providing guidance on inflation control and economic growth sustainability.

Additional Notes

This interest rate decision serves as a leading economic measure, as it can preemptively affect market expectations and influence consumer and business confidence. The actions taken by the RBNZ are closely watched in relation to comparable indicators such as inflation rates in New Zealand and similar monetary policy decisions made by central banks globally, often leading to coordinated market reactions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for NZD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the NZD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 09, 2025	3.5%	3.5%	3.75%	0%
Feb 19, 2025	3.75%	3.75%	4.25%	0%
Nov 27, 2024	4.25%	4.25%	4.75%	0%
Oct 09, 2024	4.75%	4.75%	5.25%	0%
Aug 14, 2024	5.25%	5.5%	5.5%	-0.25%
Jul 10, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	0%
May 22, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	0%
Apr 10, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	0%
Feb 28, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	0%
Nov 29, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	0%
Oct 04, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	0%
Aug 16, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	0%
Jul 12, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	0%
May 24, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.25%	0%
Apr 05, 2023	5.25%	5%	4.75%	0.25%
Feb 22, 2023	4.75%	4.75%	4.25%	0%
Nov 23, 2022	4.25%	4.25%	3.5%	0%
Oct 05, 2022	3.5%	3.5%	3%	0%
Aug 17, 2022	3%	3%	2.5%	0%
Jul 13, 2022	2.5%	2.5%	2%	0%
May 25, 2022	2%	2%	1.5%
Apr 13, 2022	1.5%	1.25%	1%	0.25%
Feb 23, 2022	1%	1%	0.75%	0%
Nov 24, 2021	0.75%	0.75%	0.5%