China CB Leading Economic Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Actual:

1.6%

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

Period: Oct 2015

What Does It Measure?

The China Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) measures the future economic performance of China by assessing key indicators that typically precede changes in economic activity. Its primary focus includes new orders, stock prices, and consumer expectations, with key indicators reflecting the potential direction of economic growth.

Frequency

The LEI is released on a monthly basis, with the report typically published around the last week of the month following the reporting period and available as a preliminary estimate which may later be revised.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the LEI as it serves as a forward-looking indicator that can signal upcoming shifts in economic trends, thus impacting investment decisions. Its results can influence key markets, with stronger-than-expected figures often being bullish for the Chinese yuan and equities, while weaker readings might bear bearish implications for those assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The LEI is derived from a composite of ten economic indicators, including metrics such as the purchasing managers' index, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment surveys. This data is collected through various methodologies, including diffusion indices calculated from survey responses of leading economic sectors.

Description

The LEI reports a composite index that incorporates multiple predictors of economic activity, making it a critical tool for anticipating future economic performance in China. Preliminary estimates are released first, offering a snapshot based on early data that may be revised later, while the final report provides a more accurate and reliable picture of economic conditions.

Additional Notes

The China LEI is considered a leading economic indicator, serving to forecast future economic activity rather than reflecting current conditions. It is instrumental for policymakers and economists when evaluating broader economic trends and can aid in comparing China's economic outlook against other global regions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Previous
Oct 23, 2015	1.6%	1%
Sep 22, 2015	1%	0.9%
Aug 25, 2015	0.9%	0.6%