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United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY

Impact:
Medium

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:
4.4%
| GBP
Actual:
6.8%
Forecast: 2.4%
Previous/Revision:
0.9%
Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: 2.4%
Period: Jun 2025
What Does It Measure?
The BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the performance of retail sales in the United Kingdom, focusing on spending trends across the retail sector. It assesses key areas such as consumer demand, purchasing behavior, and overall economic health within the context of the retail environment.
Frequency
This report is released monthly, typically in the first week of the following month and is a final figure rather than a preliminary estimate.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the BRC Retail Sales Monitor as it provides insights into consumer spending, which can greatly influence economic growth projections and overall market sentiment. Positive or higher-than-expected results often lead to bullish attitudes towards the British Pound (GBP) and UK equities, while disappointing data may trigger bearish reactions.
What Is It Derived From?
The BRC Retail Sales Monitor is derived from a comprehensive survey conducted among retailers, representing various market segments. The report aggregates sales data from participating retail companies, utilizing volume and value sales to generate an index that reflects trends in consumer spending.
Description
The BRC Retail Sales Monitor follows a Year-over-Year (YoY) reporting format, comparing current sales figures to the same period in the previous year. This approach helps eliminate seasonal fluctuations and provides a clearer picture of long-term trends in consumer behavior. By focusing on YoY data, traders can better understand structural changes in the retail market and its potential implications for the broader economy.
Additional Notes
This indicator serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current economic conditions and consumer confidence in the UK. The trends observed in the BRC Retail Sales Monitor can provide valuable context when analyzing other related indicators, such as CPI and GDP growth, as they relate to overall economic activity and consumer sentiment.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
6.8%
2.4%
0.9%
4.4%
0.9%
0.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.9%
2.4%
2.5%
-1.5%
2.5%
0.2%
3.1%
2.3%
3.1%
-0.2%
-3.4%
3.3%
-3.4%
0.7%
0.3%
-4.1%
0.3%
1.4%
1.7%
-1.1%
1.7%
1.1%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
-0.5%
-0.5%
0.2%
0.4%
-0.7%
0.4%
1.2%
-4.4%
-0.8%
-4.4%
1.6%
3.2%
-6%
3.2%
1.8%
1%
1.4%
1%
1.6%
1.4%
-0.6%
1.4%
1.7%
1.9%
-0.3%
1.9%
2.1%
2.6%
-0.2%
2.6%
2.7%
2.6%
-0.1%
2.6%
2.4%
2.8%
0.2%
2.8%
2%
4.3%
0.8%
4.3%
2.2%
1.8%
2.1%
1.8%
3.8%
4.2%
-2%
4.2%
4.6%
3.7%
-0.4%
3.7%
5.2%
5.2%
-1.5%
5.2%
4.1%
4.9%
1.1%
4.9%
4.2%
4.9%
0.7%
4.9%
4.8%
3.9%
0.1%
3.9%
3.9%
6.5%
6.5%
2.4%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
0.6%
1.2%
3.5%
1.2%
0.9%
1.8%
0.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.3%
1.6%
0.2%
1.6%
-1.1%
-1.3%
2.7%
-1.3%
-0.5%
-1.5%
-0.8%
-1.5%
-1%
-1.7%
-0.5%
-1.7%
-0.1%
-0.4%
-1.6%
-0.4%
0.3%
2.7%
-0.7%
2.7%
5.5%
8.1%
-2.8%
8.1%
-0.3%
0.6%
8.4%
0.6%
1.5%
1.8%
-0.9%
1.8%
1.1%
-0.2%
0.7%
-0.2%
-0.6%
-0.6%
1.5%