Canada Boxing Day (substitute day)

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Dec 2020

What Does It Measure?

Canada's Boxing Day, observed on December 26th, measures consumer spending and retail performance in the aftermath of Christmas. It primarily assesses the behavior of consumers in terms of retail sales, focusing on sectors such as clothing, electronics, and various consumer goods, with key indicators including total sales volume and year-over-year growth rates.

Frequency

The economic impact of Boxing Day is analyzed annually, with retailers reporting sales figures shortly after the holiday period, often available within a week after December 26th.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor Boxing Day retail performance as it provides insights into consumer confidence and spending patterns, which can influence broader economic forecasts. Strong retail sales during this time are generally viewed as bullish for equities and positively affect the Canadian dollar as they indicate a vibrant retail sector amidst the holiday season.

What Is It Derived From?

Boxing Day retail data is derived from sales reports submitted by a range of retailers across the country, including both large chains and small businesses. The measure involves aggregating sales figures and often utilizes sample sizes from various retail sectors to obtain a national estimate of consumer spending.

Description

Retail sales on Boxing Day are frequently compared year-over-year (YoY) to gauge growth trends, as this method eliminates seasonal variations that typically affect retail activity. The focus on YoY metrics is crucial for understanding ongoing consumer behavior, as compared to month-over-month (MoM) or quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) data, which might not adequately capture the context of seasonal high shopping periods.

Additional Notes

Boxing Day acts as a coincident economic indicator, closely tracking consumer behavior and serving as a sign of overall economic health. It often correlates with other indicators, such as post-Christmas sales data and broader retail market trends in North America, contributing to a comprehensive view of the holiday spending landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise