Canada Balance of Trade

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Surprise:

CAD1.09B

CAD

Actual:

C$-0.51B

Forecast: C$-1.6B

Previous/Revision:

C$-1.41B

Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jun 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Balance of Trade measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services, explicitly highlighting the economic strength or weakness of a nation. It focuses primarily on trade flows, assessing how these contribute to overall economic activity and influences factors such as employment and inflation.

Frequency

The Balance of Trade is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month following the reporting period, and the figures are usually considered final upon release.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the Balance of Trade as it affects currency values and stock market movements; a surplus indicates strong export performance, bolstering confidence in the currency, while a deficit can lead to currency depreciation and negative sentiment in equity markets. As a key indicator of economic health, it provides timely insights crucial for economic forecasting and strategic financial decision-making.

What Is It Derived From?

The Balance of Trade is derived from comprehensive data on goods and services traded with other countries, calculated using customs records and national statistical agencies. These figures are compiled from surveys of exporters and importers, providing a detailed account of trade transactions and their monetary values.

Description

A preliminary estimate of the Balance of Trade is often released shortly after the end of the reporting month, based on early data and subject to revisions; the final report, which includes adjustments, offers a more accurate reflection of the trade activity. Month-over-Month (MoM) comparisons are relevant here, as they reveal short-term shifts in trade dynamics, but the primary focus tends to be on Year-over-Year (YoY) changes to understand longer-term trends while eliminating seasonal factors.

Additional Notes

The Balance of Trade serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current economic conditions, and is crucial for understanding the broader economic context both domestically and internationally. It is often analyzed in conjunction with other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment statistics, to provide insights on economic growth and stability.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 06, 2025	C$-0.51B	C$-1.6B	C$-1.41B	C$1.09B
Apr 03, 2025	C$-1.52B	C$3.4B	C$3.13B	C$-4.92B
Mar 06, 2025	C$3.97B	C$1.3B	C$1.7B	C$2.67B
Feb 05, 2025	C$0.71B	C$0.75B	C$-0.99B	C$-0.04B
Jan 07, 2025	C$-0.32B	C$-0.9B	C$-0.54B	C$0.58B
Dec 05, 2024	C$-0.92B	C$-0.8B	C$-1.3B	C$-0.12B
Nov 05, 2024	C$-1.26B	C$-0.8B	C$-1.47B	C$-0.46B
Oct 08, 2024	C$-1.1B	C$-0.5B	C$-0.29B	C$-0.6B
Sep 04, 2024	C$0.68B	C$0.85B	C$-0.18B	C$-0.17B
Aug 06, 2024	C$0.64B	C$-1.84B	C$-1.61B	C$2.48B
Jul 03, 2024	C$-1.93B	C$-1.2B	C$-1.32B	C$-0.73B
Jun 06, 2024	C$-1.05B	C$-1.4B	C$-1.99B	C$0.35B
May 02, 2024	C$-2.28B	C$1.5B	C$0.48B	C$-3.78B
Apr 04, 2024	C$1.39B	C$0.8B	C$0.61B	C$0.59B
Mar 07, 2024	C$0.5B	C$0.1B	C$-0.86B	C$0.4B
Feb 07, 2024	C$-0.31B	C$1.1B	C$1.06B	C$-1.41B
Jan 09, 2024	C$1.57B	C$2B	C$3.2B	C$-0.43B
Dec 06, 2023	C$2.97B	C$1.6B	C$1.12B	C$1.37B
Nov 07, 2023	C$2.04B	C$1B	C$0.95B	C$1.04B
Oct 05, 2023	C$0.72B	C$-1.5B	C$-0.44B	C$2.22B
Sep 06, 2023	C$-0.99B	C$-3.65B	C$-4.92B	C$2.66B
Aug 08, 2023	C$-3.73B	C$-2.9B	C$-2.68B	C$-0.83B
Jul 06, 2023	C$-3.44B	C$1.15B	C$0.89B	C$-4.59B
Jun 07, 2023	C$1.94B	C$0.9B	C$0.23B	C$1.04B
May 04, 2023	C$0.97B	C$0.2B	C$-0.49B	C$0.77B
Apr 05, 2023	C$0.42B	C$1.8B	C$1.2B	C$-1.38B
Mar 08, 2023	C$1.92B	C$-0.06B	C$1.19B	C$1.98B
Feb 07, 2023	C$-0.16B	C$-0.5B	C$-0.22B	C$0.34B
Jan 05, 2023	C$-0.04B	C$0.61B	C$0.13B	C$-0.65B
Dec 06, 2022	C$1.21B	C$1.2B	C$0.61B	C$0.01B
Nov 03, 2022	C$1.14B	C$1.34B	C$0.55B	C$-0.2B
Oct 05, 2022	C$1.52B	C$3.45B	C$2.37B	C$-1.93B
Sep 07, 2022	C$4.05B	C$3.8B	C$4.88B	C$0.25B
Aug 04, 2022	C$5.05B	C$4.8B	C$4.77B	C$0.25B
Jul 07, 2022	C$5.32B	C$2.4B	C$2.17B	C$2.92B
Jun 07, 2022	C$1.5B	C$2.9B	C$2.28B	C$-1.4B
May 04, 2022	C$2.49B	C$3.9B	C$3.08B	C$-1.41B
Apr 05, 2022	C$2.66B	C$2.9B	C$3.12B	C$-0.24B
Mar 08, 2022	C$2.62B	C$1.6B	C$-1.58B	C$1.02B
Feb 08, 2022	C$-0.14B	C$2.5B	C$2.47B	C$-2.64B
Jan 06, 2022	C$3.13B	C$2.03B	C$2.26B	C$1.1B
Dec 07, 2021	C$2.1B	C$2B	C$1.4B	C$0.1B
Nov 04, 2021	C$1.86B	C$1.55B	C$1.51B	C$0.31B
Oct 05, 2021	C$1.94B	C$0.43B	C$0.74B	C$1.51B
Sep 02, 2021	C$0.78B	C$1.4B	C$2.56B	C$-0.62B
Aug 05, 2021	C$3.23B	C$-0.68B	C$-1.58B	C$3.91B
Jul 02, 2021	C$-1.39B	C$0.37B	C$0.46B	C$-1.76B
Jun 08, 2021	C$0.59B	C$-0.7B	C$-1.35B	C$1.29B
May 04, 2021	C$-1.14B	C$0.7B	C$1.42B	C$-1.84B
Apr 07, 2021	C$1.04B	C$1B	C$1.21B	C$0.04B
Mar 05, 2021	C$1.41B	C$-1.4B	C$-1.98B	C$2.81B
Feb 05, 2021	C$-1.67B	C$-3B	C$-3.56B	C$1.33B
Jan 07, 2021	C$-3.34B	C$-3.5B	C$-3.73B	C$0.16B
Dec 04, 2020	C$-3.76B	C$-3B	C$-3.8B	C$-0.76B
Nov 04, 2020	C$-3.25B	C$-2.6B	C$-3.21B	C$-0.65B
Oct 06, 2020	C$-2.45B	C$-2B	C$-2.53B	C$-0.45B
Sep 03, 2020	C$-2.45B	C$-2.5B	C$-1.59B	C$0.05B
Aug 05, 2020	C$-3.19B	C$-0.9B	C$-1.33B	C$-2.29B
Jul 02, 2020	C$-0.68B	C$-3B	C$-4.27B	C$2.32B
Jun 04, 2020	C$-3.25B	C$-2.36B	C$-1.53B	C$-0.89B
May 05, 2020	C$-1.41B	C$-2B	C$-0.89B	C$0.59B
Apr 02, 2020	C$-0.98B	C$-1.87B	C$-1.66B	C$0.89B
Mar 06, 2020	C$-1.47B	C$-0.83B	C$-0.73B	C$-0.64B
Feb 05, 2020	C$-0.4B	C$-0.61B	C$-1.2B	C$0.21B
Jan 07, 2020	C$-1.09B	C$-1.15B	C$-1.61B	C$0.06B
Dec 05, 2019	C$-1.08B	C$-1.37B	C$-1.23B	C$0.29B
Nov 05, 2019	C$-0.98B	C$-0.7B	C$-1.24B	C$-0.28B
Oct 04, 2019	C$-0.96B	C$-1B	C$-1.38B	C$0.04B
Sep 04, 2019	C$-1.12B	C$-0.4B	C$-0.06B	C$-0.72B
Aug 02, 2019	C$0.14B	C$-0.3B	C$0.56B	C$0.44B
Jul 03, 2019	C$0.76B	C$-1.5B	C$-1.08B	C$2.26B
Jun 06, 2019	C$-0.97B	C$-2.8B	C$-2.34B	C$1.83B
May 09, 2019	C$-3.21B	C$-2.45B	C$-3.42B	C$-0.76B
Apr 17, 2019	C$-2.9B	C$-3.5B	C$-3.09B	C$0.6B
Mar 27, 2019	C$-4.25B	C$-3.5B	C$-4.82B	C$-0.75B
Mar 06, 2019	C$-4.59B	C$-2.8B	C$-1.98B	C$-1.79B
Jan 08, 2019	C$-2.06B	C$-1.95B	C$-0.85B	C$-0.11B
Dec 06, 2018	C$-1.17B	C$-0.7B	C$-0.89B	C$-0.47B
Nov 02, 2018	C$-0.42B	C$0.15B	C$-0.55B	C$-0.57B
Oct 05, 2018	C$0.53B	C$-0.5B	C$-0.19B	C$1.03B
Sep 05, 2018	C$-0.11B	C$-1.13B	C$-0.74B	C$1.02B
Aug 03, 2018	C$-0.63B	C$-2.3B	C$-2.72B	C$1.67B
Jul 06, 2018	C$-2.77B	C$-2.05B	C$-1.86B	C$-0.72B
Jun 06, 2018	C$-1.9B	C$-3.4B	C$-3.93B	C$1.5B
May 03, 2018	C$-4.14B	C$-2.24B	C$-2.93B	C$-1.9B
Apr 05, 2018	C$-2.69B	C$-2.1B	C$-1.94B	C$-0.59B
Mar 07, 2018	C$-1.91B	C$-2.5B	C$-3.05B	C$0.59B
Feb 06, 2018	C$-3.19B	C$-2.2B	C$-2.71B	C$-0.99B
Jan 05, 2018	C$-2.54B	C$-1.2B	C$-1.55B	C$-1.34B
Dec 05, 2017	C$-1.47B	C$-2.7B	C$-3.36B	C$1.23B
Nov 03, 2017	C$-3.18B	C$-3B	C$-3.18B	C$-0.18B
Oct 05, 2017	C$-3.41B	C$-2.6B	C$-2.98B	C$-0.81B
Sep 06, 2017	C$-3.04B	C$-3.1B	C$-3.76B	C$0.06B
Aug 04, 2017	C$-3.6B	C$-1.35B	C$-1.36B	C$-2.25B
Jul 06, 2017	C$-1.09B	C$-0.53B	C$-0.55B	C$-0.56B
Jun 02, 2017	C$-0.37B	C$-0.07B	C$-0.94B	C$-0.3B
May 04, 2017	C$-0.14B	C$-0.85B	C$-1.08B	C$0.71B
Apr 04, 2017	C$-0.97B	C$0.5B	C$0.42B	C$-1.47B
Mar 07, 2017	C$0.81B	C$0.7B	C$0.45B	C$0.11B
Feb 07, 2017	C$0.92B	C$0.35B	C$1.01B	C$0.57B
Jan 06, 2017	C$0.53B	C$-1.6B	C$-1.02B	C$2.13B
Dec 06, 2016	C$-1.13B	C$-2B	C$-4.38B	C$0.87B
Nov 04, 2016	C$-4.08B	C$-1.7B	C$-1.99B	C$-2.38B
Oct 05, 2016	C$-1.94B	C$-2.6B	C$-2.19B	C$0.66B
Sep 02, 2016	C$-2.49B	C$-3.25B	C$-3.97B	C$0.76B
Aug 05, 2016	C$-3.63B	C$-2.82B	C$-3.5B	C$-0.81B
Jul 06, 2016	C$-3.28B	C$-2.7B	C$-3.32B	C$-0.58B
Jun 03, 2016	C$-2.94B	C$-2.45B	C$-3.18B	C$-0.49B
May 04, 2016	C$-3.41B	C$-1.4B	C$-2.47B	C$-2.01B
Apr 05, 2016	C$-1.91B	C$-0.9B	C$-0.63B	C$-1.01B
Mar 04, 2016	C$-0.66B	C$-1.05B	C$-0.63B	C$0.39B
Feb 05, 2016	C$-0.59B	C$-2.2B	C$-1.59B	C$1.61B
Jan 06, 2016	C$-1.99B	C$-2.6B	C$-2.49B	C$0.61B
Dec 04, 2015	C$-2.76B	C$-1.7B	C$-2.33B	C$-1.06B
Nov 04, 2015	C$-1.73B	C$-1.9B	C$-2.66B	C$0.17B
Oct 06, 2015	C$-2.53B	C$-1.2B	C$-0.82B	C$-1.33B
Sep 03, 2015	C$-0.59B	C$-1.3B	C$-0.81B	C$0.71B
Aug 05, 2015	C$-0.48B	CAD -2.8B	C$-3.37B
Jul 07, 2015	C$-3.34B	C$-3.3B	C$-2.99B	C$-0.04B
Jun 03, 2015	C$-2.97B	C$-1.5B	C$-3.85B	C$-1.47B
May 05, 2015	C$-3.02B	C$0.1B	C$-2.22B	C$-3.12B