Japan 10-Year JGB Auction

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Actual:

1.274%

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

1.405%

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Japan 10-Year JGB Auction measures the yield and demand for ten-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs), which is an indicator of investor confidence in the country's financial stability and economic outlook. It primarily assesses market sentiment, interest rates, and the fiscal health of Japan, focusing on the cost of borrowing for the government.

Frequency

The auction occurs regularly, typically on a monthly basis, with results released shortly after the auction session concludes.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the results of the JGB auction as they directly impact Japan's interest rates and yield curves, influencing currency valuation (JPY) and broader market sentiments. Strong demand or lower yields in the auction can signal confidence, leading to bullish trends for the yen and impacting equity markets positively.

What Is It Derived From?

The auction results are derived from competitive bids made by institutional investors, banks, and other financial entities participating in the auction process, with yield determined based on actual bids submitted. The effective yield represents the accepted price against nominal value weighted by the total amount of bids for each auction.

Description

The JGB auction reflects the government's ability to raise capital and the prevailing economic sentiment, often compared against other instruments like U.S. Treasuries. Preliminary data is based on initial bids, and although final results reflect post-auction adjustments, forecasts of demand can significantly sway market momentum.

Additional Notes

This auction serves as a leading measure of investor sentiment regarding Japan’s economic outlook and may hint at future monetary policy directions. It is often viewed in relation to global bond markets and interest rate trends, revealing comparisons to similar auctions in other regions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected demand for JGBs: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected demand for JGBs: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the JPY but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Previous
May 08, 2025	1.274%	1.405%
Apr 03, 2025	1.405%	1.404%
Mar 04, 2025	1.404%	1.26%
Feb 04, 2025	1.26%	1.14%
Jan 07, 2025	1.14%	1.084%
Dec 03, 2024	1.084%	1%
Nov 07, 2024	1%	0.871%
Oct 03, 2024	0.871%	0.915%
Sep 03, 2024	0.915%	0.926%
Aug 06, 2024	0.926%	1.091%
Jul 02, 2024	1.091%	1.048%
Jun 04, 2024	1.048%	0.857%
May 08, 2024	0.857%	0.753%
Apr 02, 2024	0.753%	0.718%
Feb 01, 2024	0.741%	0.596%
Jan 10, 2024	0.596%	0.697%
Dec 05, 2023	0.697%	0.91%
Nov 02, 2023	0.91%	0.768%
Oct 03, 2023	0.768%	0.657%
Sep 05, 2023	0.657%	0.594%
Aug 01, 2023	0.594%	0.428%
Jul 04, 2023	0.428%	0.436%
Jun 01, 2023	0.436%	0.426%
May 09, 2023	0.426%	0.456%
Apr 04, 2023	0.456%	0.5%
Mar 02, 2023	0.5%	0.485%
Feb 02, 2023	0.485%	0.5%
Jan 05, 2023	0.5%	0.25%
Dec 01, 2022	0.25%	0.248%
Nov 01, 2022	0.248%	0.248%
Oct 04, 2022	0.248%	0.235%
Sep 01, 2022	0.235%	0.168%
Aug 02, 2022	0.168%	0.248%
Jul 05, 2022	0.248%	0.239%
Jun 02, 2022	0.239%	0.245%
May 10, 2022	0.245%	0.201%
Apr 05, 2022	0.201%	0.179%
Mar 01, 2022	0.179%	0.175%
Feb 01, 2022	0.175%	0.096%
Jan 05, 2022	0.096%	0.06%
Dec 02, 2021	0.06%	0.107%
Nov 01, 2021	0.107%	0.049%
Oct 05, 2021	0.049%	0.023%
Sep 02, 2021	0.023%	0.009%
Aug 03, 2021	0.009%	0.058%
Jul 01, 2021	0.058%	0.078%
Jun 03, 2021	0.078%	0.07%
May 11, 2021	0.07%	0.123%
Apr 01, 2021	0.123%	0.131%
Mar 02, 2021	0.131%	0.053%
Feb 02, 2021	0.053%	0.019%
Jan 06, 2021	0.019%	0.019%
Dec 01, 2020	0.019%	0.046%
Nov 04, 2020	0.046%	0.024%
Oct 01, 2020	0.024%	0.034%
Sep 01, 2020	0.034%	0.018%
Aug 04, 2020	0.018%	0.058%
Jul 02, 2020	0.058%	0%
Jun 02, 2020	0%	-0.001%
May 12, 2020	-0.001%	0.023%
Apr 02, 2020	0.023%	-0.1%
Mar 03, 2020	-0.1%	-0.051%
Feb 04, 2020	-0.051%	-0.005%
Jan 07, 2020	-0.005%	-0.042%
Dec 03, 2019	-0.042%	-0.099%
Nov 06, 2019	-0.099%	-0.16%
Oct 01, 2019	-0.16%	-0.27%
Sep 03, 2019	-0.27%	-0.15%
Aug 01, 2019	-0.15%	-0.14%
Jul 02, 2019	-0.14%	-0.11%
Jun 04, 2019	-0.11%	-0.06%
May 08, 2019	-0.06%	-0.06%
Apr 02, 2019	-0.006%	-0.002%
Mar 05, 2019	-0.002%	-0.013%
Feb 05, 2019	-0.013%	0.015%
Jan 08, 2019	0.015%	0.07%
Sep 05, 2018	0.11%	0.13%
Feb 01, 2018	0.088%	0.078%
Jan 10, 2018	0.078%	0.059%
Dec 05, 2017	0.059%	0.062%
Nov 01, 2017	0.062%	0.077%
Oct 03, 2017	0.077%	0.011%
Sep 05, 2017	0.011%	0.073%
Aug 01, 2017	0.073%	0.079%
Jul 04, 2017	0.079%	0.051%
Jun 01, 2017	0.051%	0.03%
May 09, 2017	0.03%	0.064%
Apr 04, 2017	0.064%	0.082%
Mar 02, 2017	0.082%	0.087%
Feb 02, 2017	0.087%	0.056%
Jan 05, 2017	0.056%	-0.056%
Nov 08, 2016	-0.056%	-0.058%
Oct 04, 2016	-0.058%	-0.046%
Sep 01, 2016	-0.046%	-0.047%
Aug 02, 2016	-0.047%	-0.243%
Jul 05, 2016	-0.243%	-0.094%
Jun 02, 2016	-0.094%	-0.096%
Apr 05, 2016	-0.069%	-0.024%
Feb 02, 2016	0.078%	0.055%
Dec 01, 2015	0.32%	0.318%
Nov 05, 2015	0.318%	0.336%
Oct 01, 2015	0.336%	0.421%
Sep 01, 2015	0.421%	0.4%
Jun 02, 2015	0.45%	0.434%
May 12, 2015	0.434%	0.369%