United States Factory Orders ex Transportation

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

-0.4%

Actual:

-0.2%

Forecast: 0.2%

Previous/Revision:

0.3%

Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jun 2025

What Does It Measure?

United States Factory Orders ex Transportation measures the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for the production of goods, excluding orders for transportation equipment. The primary focus is on assessing the demand for manufactured goods and provides insights into production, economic growth, and future employment trends.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, and it provides both preliminary and final figures for the previous month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely watch this indicator as it reflects the health of the manufacturing sector and broader economic activity, impacting financial markets significantly. A higher-than-expected reading can bolster investor confidence, leading to bullish sentiment in equities and the US dollar, while weaker results may have bearish implications.

What Is It Derived From?

This measure is derived from survey data collected from thousands of manufacturers, tracking new orders for various goods, with specific emphasis given to production items excluding transportation. The collection process uses industry-standard methodologies, including diffusion indices and weighting based on the importance of different manufacturing sectors.

Description

The monthly Factory Orders ex Transportation report offers a detailed outlook on manufacturing demand and trends, playing a critical role in determining economic directions. The preliminary data, released shortly after the month ends, provides timely insights, while final data, released later, offers more refined estimates based on updated reports.

Additional Notes

This indicator is considered a leading economic measure, indicating future economic activity through current manufacturing orders. It is often compared to other indicators like the ISM Manufacturing Index, both providing insights into manufacturing health but from different perspectives.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 02, 2025	-0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.4%
Apr 02, 2025	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
Mar 05, 2025	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Feb 04, 2025	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%	-0.3%
Jan 06, 2025	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Dec 04, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 04, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
Oct 03, 2024	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Sep 04, 2024	0.4%	-0.2%	0.1%	0.6%
Aug 02, 2024	0.1%	0.3%	-0.7%	-0.2%
Jul 03, 2024	-0.7%	0.3%	0.5%	-1%
Jun 04, 2024	0.7%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
May 02, 2024	0.5%	0.5%	1.1%
Apr 02, 2024	1.1%	0.4%	-0.6%	0.7%
Mar 05, 2024	-0.8%	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.7%
Feb 02, 2024	0.4%	0%	0.2%	0.4%
Jan 05, 2024	0.1%	0.7%	-1.3%	-0.6%
Dec 04, 2023	-1.2%	0.3%	0.4%	-1.5%
Nov 02, 2023	0.8%	0.7%	1.5%	0.1%
Oct 04, 2023	1.4%	0.6%	0.9%	0.8%
Sep 05, 2023	0.8%	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%
Aug 03, 2023	0.2%	0.4%	-0.4%	-0.2%
Jul 05, 2023	-0.5%	0.5%	-0.6%	-1%
Jun 05, 2023	-0.2%	-0.9%	-1%	0.7%
May 02, 2023	-0.7%	0.3%	-0.7%	-1%
Apr 04, 2023	-0.3%	-0.8%	0.8%	0.5%
Mar 06, 2023	1.2%	0.6%	-1.2%	0.6%
Feb 02, 2023	-1.2%	-0.4%	-1.2%	-0.8%
Jan 06, 2023	-0.8%	-0.4%	0.1%	-0.4%
Dec 05, 2022	0.8%	0.1%	-0.2%	0.7%
Nov 03, 2022	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
Oct 04, 2022	0.2%	-0.6%	-1.1%	0.8%
Sep 02, 2022	-1.1%	0.3%	1%	-1.4%
Aug 03, 2022	1.4%	0.6%	1.8%	0.8%
Jul 05, 2022	1.7%	0.5%	0.6%	1.2%
Jun 02, 2022	0.3%	1.4%	2.2%	-1.1%
May 03, 2022	2.5%	0.9%	1%	1.6%
Apr 04, 2022	0.4%	-0.3%	1.2%	0.7%
Mar 03, 2022	1%	0.2%	0.5%	0.8%
Feb 03, 2022	0.1%	0.3%	0.8%	-0.2%
Jan 06, 2022	0.8%	1.4%	1.5%	-0.6%
Dec 03, 2021	1.6%	0.4%	1.1%	1.2%
Nov 03, 2021	0.7%	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%
Oct 04, 2021	0.5%	0.5%	0.9%
Sep 02, 2021	0.8%	0.5%	1.5%	0.3%
Aug 03, 2021	1.4%	0.5%	1%	0.9%
Jul 02, 2021	0.7%	0.3%	1%	0.4%
Jun 04, 2021	0.5%	0.4%	2.3%	0.1%
May 04, 2021	1.7%	1.1%	-0.2%	0.6%
Apr 05, 2021	-0.6%	-0.4%	1.8%	-0.2%
Mar 04, 2021	1.7%	0.7%	1.9%	1%
Feb 04, 2021	1.4%	0.6%	1.1%	0.8%
Jan 06, 2021	0.8%	0.4%	1.3%	0.4%
Dec 04, 2020	1%	0.4%	0.9%	0.6%
Nov 03, 2020	0.5%	1%	0.9%	-0.5%
Oct 02, 2020	0.7%	1.5%	2.4%	-0.8%
Sep 02, 2020	2.1%	4.5%	4.8%	-2.4%
Aug 04, 2020	4.4%	4.2%	2.6%	0.2%
Jul 02, 2020	2.6%	4.9%	-8.9%	-2.3%
Jun 03, 2020	-8.5%	-9%	-4%	0.5%
May 04, 2020	-3.7%	-7.2%	-1.1%	3.5%
Apr 02, 2020	-0.9%	0.3%	-0.4%	-1.2%
Mar 05, 2020	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.6%	0.1%
Feb 04, 2020	0.6%	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Jan 07, 2020	0.3%	-0.4%	0.3%	0.7%
Dec 05, 2019	0.2%	0.4%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Nov 04, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Oct 03, 2019	0%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Sep 05, 2019	0.3%	0.7%	-0.1%	-0.4%
Aug 02, 2019	0.1%	0.6%	0%	-0.5%
Jul 03, 2019	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jun 04, 2019	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
May 02, 2019	0.8%	0.2%	0.3%	0.6%
Apr 08, 2019	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Mar 19, 2019	-0.2%	0.3%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Feb 27, 2019	-0.6%	0.8%	-1.3%	-1.4%
Feb 04, 2019	-1.3%	0.1%	0.2%	-1.4%
Dec 06, 2018	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 02, 2018	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%
Oct 04, 2018	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.3%
Sep 06, 2018	0.2%	0.54%	0.4%	-0.34%
Aug 02, 2018	0.4%	0.4%	0.8%
Jul 03, 2018	0.7%	0.2%	0.9%	0.5%
Jun 04, 2018	0.4%	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
May 03, 2018	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Apr 04, 2018	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.3%
Mar 06, 2018	0.4%	-0.1%	0.9%	0.5%
Feb 02, 2018	0.7%	0.4%	1.1%	0.3%
Jan 05, 2018	0.8%	0.5%	1.2%	0.3%
Dec 04, 2017	0.8%	0.2%	1.1%	0.6%
Nov 03, 2017	0.7%	0.1%	0.6%	0.6%
Oct 05, 2017	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	0.3%
Sep 05, 2017	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
Aug 03, 2017	-0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.4%
Jul 05, 2017	-0.3%	0.2%	0%	-0.5%
Jun 05, 2017	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
May 04, 2017	-0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.6%
Apr 04, 2017	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	-0.2%
Mar 06, 2017	0.3%	0.6%	2.4%	-0.3%
Feb 03, 2017	2.1%	0.4%	0.6%	1.7%
Jan 06, 2017	0.1%	-0.6%	0.8%	0.7%
Dec 06, 2016	0.8%	1.1%	0.6%	-0.3%
Nov 03, 2016	0.6%	0.23%	0.3%	0.37%
Oct 05, 2016	0%	0.25%	-0.1%	-0.25%
Sep 02, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Aug 04, 2016	0.4%	-0.1%	0.2%	0.5%
Jul 05, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Jun 03, 2016	0.5%	-0.1%	1%	0.6%
May 04, 2016	0.8%	-0.3%	-0.9%	1.1%
Apr 04, 2016	-0.8%	-0.21%	-0.6%	-0.59%
Mar 03, 2016	-0.2%	1.1%	-0.9%	-1.3%
Feb 04, 2016	-0.8%	-0.13%	-0.7%	-0.67%
Jan 06, 2016	-0.3%	-0.7%	0.1%	0.4%
Dec 03, 2015	0.2%	0.31%	-2.2%	-0.11%
Nov 03, 2015	-0.6%	-0.3%	-1.1%	-0.3%