United States FOMC Minutes

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: May 2015

What Does It Measure?

The FOMC Minutes measure the discussions and decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding monetary policy in the United States, explicitly detailing the viewpoints of committee members on economic conditions and policy recommendations. This indicator primarily focuses on interest rate policy, inflation forecasts, and overall economic outlook, making it a key component in assessing the future direction of monetary policy.

Frequency

The FOMC Minutes are released approximately three weeks after the FOMC meetings, on a Wednesday, providing a detailed account of the discussions held during the previous meeting.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the FOMC Minutes because they contain insights into the Fed's monetary policy stance, which directly affects financial markets. Any indication of a hawkish or dovish tone can influence currencies, equities, and bond yields, with traders making adjustments based on perceived changes in future interest rates and economic growth expectations.

What Is It Derived From?

The FOMC Minutes are derived from the transcripts and notes taken during the FOMC meetings, which include contributions from all the committee members. These records capture economic analyses, forecasts, and policy discussions, and are compiled by the Federal Reserve staff, ensuring thorough representation of each member's views.

Description

The FOMC Minutes provide a comprehensive overview of the deliberations that occurred during the FOMC meetings, highlighting the economic indicators that influenced voting decisions on monetary policy. The document elucidates the rationale behind specific policy moves, comments on economic conditions, and identifies risks facing the U.S. economy, thereby serving as an essential tool for investors and analysts in understanding monetary policy direction.

Additional Notes

The FOMC Minutes are considered a lagging economic indicator since they reflect past decisions made during the meetings, but they can inform traders about future monetary policies. This document is often analyzed alongside other economic reports, such as the Federal Reserve's economic projections, to draw broader conclusions about the trajectory of U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the Currency but bad for Stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise