United States Dallas Fed Services Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

USD-10.4

Actual:

-19.4

Forecast: -9

Previous/Revision:

-11.3

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: -10

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Dallas Fed Services Index explicitly measures the economic activity of service sector firms in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, which includes Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico. It focuses on key areas such as business activity, employment, and prices, providing a snapshot of conditions in the service industry, with a diffusion index above zero indicating expansion and below zero indicating contraction.

Frequency

This index is released on a monthly basis, providing preliminary estimates typically on the last business day of the month following the reporting period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Dallas Fed Services Index because it influences expectations for economic performance in the service sector, impacting financial markets directly through assets such as currencies, stocks, and commodities. Positive readings can boost investor confidence and are generally bullish for the USD and equities, while negative readings may depress market sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is calculated based on monthly surveys administered to a diverse group of service sector businesses within the Federal Reserve's district. These firms report on a range of operational metrics, including changes in sales revenue, employment levels, and cost pressures, which are compiled into a diffusion index reflecting overall business conditions.

Description

The Dallas Fed Services Index produces preliminary data that reflects initial estimates of service sector performance, which are subject to revision as more comprehensive data becomes available. While the final figures provide a more accurate depiction of the economic landscape within the sector, preliminary reports are crucial for gauging immediate market reactions and trends.

Additional Notes

The index is considered a leading economic indicator because it reflects changes in the service sector before they fully manifest in other economic areas such as consumer spending and employment. It also offers insights that are relevant to assessing economic conditions in relation to other regional indices or national reports.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 29, 2025	-19.4	-9	-11.3	-10.4
Apr 01, 2025	-11.3	5	4.6	-16.3
Feb 25, 2025	4.6	9	7.4	-4.4
Jan 28, 2025	7.4	9.5	10.8	-2.1
Dec 31, 2024	9.6	9	9.8	0.6
Nov 26, 2024	9.8	4	2	5.8
Oct 29, 2024	2	-2.5	-2.6	4.5
Oct 01, 2024	-2.6	-4	-7.7	1.4
Aug 27, 2024	-7.7	-0.2	-0.1	-7.5
Jul 30, 2024	-0.1	3	-4.1	-3.1
Jun 25, 2024	-4.1	-10	-12.1	5.9
May 29, 2024	-12.1	-10	-10.6	-2.1
Apr 30, 2024	-10.6	-5	-5.5	-5.6
Mar 26, 2024	-5.5	-6	-3.9	0.5
Feb 27, 2024	-3.9	-6	-9.3	2.1
Jan 30, 2024	-9.3	-8	-8.8	-1.3
Dec 27, 2023	-8.7	-11.5	-11.6	2.8
Nov 28, 2023	-11.6	-19	-18.2	7.4
Oct 31, 2023	-18.2	-8.4	-8.6	-9.8
Sep 26, 2023	-8.6	-6	-2.7	-2.6
Aug 29, 2023	-2.7	-6.1	-4.2	3.4
Aug 01, 2023	-4.2	-12.5	-8.2	8.3
Jun 27, 2023	-8.2	-15	-17.3	6.8
May 31, 2023	-17.3	-16	-14.4	-1.3
Apr 25, 2023	-14.4	-16	-18	1.6
Mar 28, 2023	-18	-21	-9.3	3
Feb 28, 2023	-9.3	-10	-15	0.7
Jan 31, 2023	-15	-12	-20.5	-3
Dec 28, 2022	-19.8	-7	-11	-12.8
Nov 29, 2022	-11	-15	-13.6	4
Nov 01, 2022	-13.6	-5	-5.4	-8.6
Sep 27, 2022	-5.4	-1	-5.7	-4.4
Aug 30, 2022	-5.7	-15	-10.9	9.3
Jul 26, 2022	-10.9	-8	-12.4	-2.9
Jun 28, 2022	-12.4	3	1.5	-15.4
Jun 01, 2022	1.5	7	8.2	-5.5
Apr 26, 2022	8.2	13	10.6	-4.8
Mar 29, 2022	10.6	18	16.6	-7.4
Mar 01, 2022	16.6	3	0.6	13.6
Feb 01, 2022	0.6	11	14.2	-10.4
Dec 28, 2021	12.9	18.6	22.7	-5.7
Nov 30, 2021	22.7	21	20.7	1.7
Oct 26, 2021	20.7		8.3