Spain CPI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

EUR-0.4

Actual:

113.8

Forecast: 114.2

Previous/Revision:

113.4

Period: Mar 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 114.7

Period: Apr 2024

What Does It Measure?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Spain measures the change in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services, reflecting the cost of living and inflation within the economy. Its primary focus is to assess inflationary trends by evaluating price fluctuations across various categories such as food, housing, transportation, and healthcare, with key indicators including the inflation rate and the monthly and yearly percentage changes.

Frequency

The CPI is released monthly, typically on the last working day of the month, providing preliminary figures that may be subject to revision in subsequent updates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the CPI as it directly impacts monetary policy decisions made by the European Central Bank, influencing key financial markets. A higher-than-expected CPI indicates rising inflation, which can strengthen the Euro and lead to bearish sentiment in equities, while lower readings may trigger the opposite effects.

What Is It Derived From?

The CPI is derived from price data collected through surveys of consumer spending, incorporating a wide range of goods and services purchased by households. The index is calculated using a weighted average of prices, with adjustments made to reflect changes in consumption patterns and the introduction of new products.

Description

The CPI reflects both preliminary and final reports, where preliminary data, released close to the end of the month, is based on early estimates and can undergo revisions, while final data provides a more accurate and comprehensive picture released subsequently. The event typically employs a Year-over-Year (YoY) comparison, which effectively eliminates seasonal effects and highlights long-term inflationary trends in the economy.

Additional Notes

As a leading indicator of economic health, the CPI is significant for analyzing broader economic trends and is often compared with other inflation measures, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI). Furthermore, it serves as a crucial indicator for assessing consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability, influencing market sentiments both domestically and in relation to other global economies.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bullish for Stocks. The tone signaling rising inflation concerns usually suggests higher interest rates, which is typically good for the Euro but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 14, 2024	113.8	114.2	113.4	-0.4
Feb 15, 2024	113.404	113	113.3	0.404
Jan 12, 2024	113.3	113.3	113.3
Dec 14, 2023	113.3	113.23	113.7	0.07
Nov 14, 2023	113.676	113.7	113.7	-0.024
Oct 13, 2023	113.3	113.3	113.15
Sep 12, 2023	113.15	113.12	112.54	0.03
Aug 11, 2023	112.544	112.49	112.354	0.054
Jul 12, 2023	112.354	112.4	111.719	-0.046
Jun 13, 2023	111.7	111.7	111.8
May 12, 2023	111.8		111.1
Apr 14, 2023	111.1	111.1	110.7
Mar 14, 2023	110.7	110.2	109.7	0.5
Feb 15, 2023	109.7	109.6	109.9	0.1
Jan 13, 2023	109.9	110	109.7	-0.1