European Union European Commission Spring Forecasts

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The European Commission Spring Forecasts is a key indicator that measures the anticipated economic performance of the European Union for the upcoming years. It primarily focuses on assessing GDP growth, unemployment rates, inflation, and other macroeconomic indicators on a regional level, providing insights into economic trends within the EU.

Frequency

This report is released annually, typically in May, and it presents final figures after revisions are made based on updated economic data.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Spring Forecasts because it provides crucial information on the economic outlook of the EU, influencing market sentiment and investment decisions. Positive forecasts can lead to bullish trends in the euro and European equities, while negative outlooks may prompt bearish sentiments.

What Is It Derived From?

The forecasts are derived from a combination of econometric models, expert assessments, and statistical data collected from EU member states. This incorporates a wide range of economic indicators and surveys targeting business and consumer sentiment to reflect comprehensive economic conditions.

Description

The Spring Forecasts distinguish between preliminary estimates and more refined final figures, with preliminary data being released earlier based on initial assessments and subject to later revisions. Final data, released later, represents a more accurate depiction of the economic landscape but may not capture immediate market reactions, as traders tend to respond quickly to initial releases.

Additional Notes

These forecasts are considered as coincident indicators, reflecting the current economic condition and expectations for the near future. They are pivotal in shaping fiscal and monetary policy discussions and relate closely to other economic reports like growth rates and employment statistics across EU countries.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise