Italy Epiphany

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

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What Does It Measure?

The Italy Epiphany (Festa dell'Epifania) is not a standard economic event measured in the same way as typical financial indicators; however, it signifies an important cultural observance, influencing consumer spending patterns, particularly in retail and tourism sectors. It primarily assesses holiday-related economic activity, with key indicators including retail sales and tourism revenue being notably affected during this time.

Frequency

The celebration occurs annually on January 6th, commemorating the arrival of the Magi and marked by various festivities, but it does not have regular quantitative economic reports released specifically on its impact.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders are interested in the Italy Epiphany as it may indicate consumer sentiment and temporary spikes in retail activity, which can influence economic forecasts and quarterly earnings reports for various sectors. Seasonal festivities like the Epiphany can also affect financial markets by impacting currency valuations and stock prices of retail-oriented companies.

What Is It Derived From?

The economic implications of the Italy Epiphany are derived from consumer behavior surveys and sales data reported by retailers, as well as tourism statistics gathered by regional and national agencies. This assessment considers various merchandise sales performance and aggregate consumer spending trends during the holiday season.

Description

Although the Epiphany does not have recorded economic data measured directly, it can be analyzed by observing trends in retail sales data for January, particularly Year-over-Year (YoY), which compares results to the same time the previous year and helps gauge the holiday's impact on consumer spending levels. The focus on YoY data is preferred as it smooths out seasonality and provides clearer insights into overall economic health and consumer behavior patterns tied to cultural events.

Additional Notes

The Italy Epiphany is a cultural event that may serve as a coincident economic indicator by reflecting associated spending trends during holiday celebrations. Its effects on the broader economy, such as increased retail sales during the festive season, can also serve as insights into similar patterns in other regions celebrating comparable traditions.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jan 06, 2025
Jan 06, 2024
Jan 06, 2023
Jan 06, 2022
Jan 06, 2021
Jan 06, 2020
Jan 06, 2018
Jan 06, 2017
Jan 06, 2016