United Kingdom Employment Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

123K

GBP

Actual:

373K

Forecast: 250K

Previous/Revision:

265K

Period: Aug

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Aug

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom Employment Change measures the net change in the number of employed individuals during a specific period, focusing primarily on workforce dynamics in the country. It assesses key areas such as labor market growth, unemployment rates, and overall economic health, indicating economic activity and consumer spending potential.

Frequency

This report is released monthly and typically provides preliminary estimates, with final figures published in subsequent months, usually around the middle of the month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Employment Change data as it serves as an important indicator of economic strength and consumer confidence in the UK, affecting financial markets significantly. Strong employment growth is generally bullish for the British Pound and equities, while weaker data may lead to bearish sentiment for these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Employment Change figure is derived from the Labour Force Survey, which surveys thousands of households throughout the UK, capturing data on employment status, job availability, and labor market participation. The results are processed using statistical methodologies to account for seasonality and demographic variations.

Description

The Employment Change data is presented as a net figure, showing the increase or decrease in jobs compared to the previous month, which aids traders in gauging short-term labor market trends. This month-over-month comparison is crucial for identifying immediate shifts in employment dynamics, enhancing its relevance in real-time economic assessments.

Additional Notes

The Employment Change indicator is considered a coincident economic measure, providing insights into current economic performance rather than forecasting future trends. Its relationship with other indicators, such as wage growth and job vacancies, allows for a comprehensive view of the labor market landscape in the UK.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Oct 15, 2024		373K	250K	265K	123K