Euro Area ECB Macroeconomic Projections

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: European Central Bank

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area ECB Macroeconomic Projections measure the European Central Bank's (ECB) forecasts regarding key economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment rates within the Eurozone. It assesses the expected trajectory of economic activity and price stability, crucial for setting monetary policy.

Frequency

The ECB Macroeconomic Projections are released quarterly, typically coinciding with the ECB’s monetary policy meetings, and represent the most recent estimates based on various economic models and data.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor these macroeconomic projections as they significantly influence monetary policy decisions and market sentiments, impacting the value of the euro and European equities. Changes or surprises in these projections can lead to volatility in financial markets, affecting currencies, stocks, and bonds.

What Is It Derived From?

These projections are derived from a combination of economic models, statistical analysis, and surveys involving businesses and economic experts, incorporating qualitative judgments from ECB staff. The ECB utilizes a variety of data sources, including real economic activity, inflation trends, and labor market dynamics, to model future economic conditions.

Description

The ECB Macroeconomic Projections provide insights into expected GDP growth, inflation rates, and other economic variables for the Eurozone over a defined horizon, specifically covering a one- to three-year period. Preliminary results are published alongside initial reports, while final figures include revisions based on updated data, and financial markets tend to respond more vigorously to the preliminary estimates due to their immediacy.

Additional Notes

The ECB's macroeconomic projections serve as a leading indicator of economic health in the Eurozone, reflecting potential changes in consumer behavior and investment trends. They also interplay with various economic trends across different regions, allowing for comparative analyses with other global economic reports.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise