European Union EC Economic Forecasts

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The European Union Economic Forecasts measure the projected performance of the economy within the EU, specifically focusing on growth rates, inflation, and employment levels. Key areas assessed include GDP growth, consumer price inflation, and labor market conditions, serving as vital indicators for economic health at the regional level.

Frequency

The forecasts are released biannually, typically in May and November, with the November edition providing final estimates for the current year and initial projections for the next year.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor these forecasts as they offer insights into future economic conditions, influencing market expectations and investor sentiment. Stronger-than-expected economic growth or employment data generally bolster the euro and equity markets, while higher inflation forecasts may prompt concerns about monetary tightening.

What Is It Derived From?

The European Union Economic Forecasts are derived from a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic data, including surveys of business and consumer confidence, national statistical reports, and expert assessments. The data collection involves a combination of econometric models and expert evaluations to ensure robustness in the projections.

Description

The forecasts include both preliminary and final reports, where preliminary data presents early estimates that may be revised in subsequent releases, while final data provides a more accurate and detailed outlook based on complete data sets. Month-over-month and quarter-over-quarter metrics are periodically included to offer context, but the forecasts generally focus on year-over-year comparisons to highlight long-term trends free from seasonal variations.

Additional Notes

These economic forecasts serve as leading indicators, anticipating future economic conditions and guiding policymaking in the region. They are also watched closely in relation to national economic indicators and global economic performance, allowing for a broader understanding of how the EU economy interacts with other economies worldwide.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise