United States Core PPI YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-0.4%

USD

Actual:

2.3%

Forecast: 2.7%

Previous/Revision:

2.7%

Period: Aug

What Does It Measure?

The United States Core Producer Price Index (Core PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding food and energy prices due to their volatility. This indicator primarily assesses inflation at the wholesale level, focusing on intermediate and finished goods that producers sell.

Frequency

The Core PPI is released monthly, usually on the second or third week of the month, and includes both preliminary estimates and final figures, with the preliminary data being subject to revision.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Core PPI as it has implications for inflation trends, which can influence monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. Higher-than-expected readings are typically bullish for the US dollar and may boost bond yields as markets anticipate potential interest rate hikes, while lower-than-expected figures could suggest easing inflation pressures, negatively impacting these same assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Core PPI is derived from a survey that encompasses a broad array of manufacturers and service producers, collecting data on prices for various finished goods and services. This compilation relies on methodologies such as the Laspeyres formula to create a weighted index, where prices are gathered monthly from thousands of establishments.

Description

Preliminary reports of the Core PPI are based on early estimates of price changes and can be revised as more comprehensive data becomes available in subsequent final reports. The indicator is reported on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, which helps to eliminate seasonality and provide a clear view of long-term inflation trends.

Additional Notes

The Core PPI serves as a leading economic indicator since it often signals future consumer price trends, thereby providing insight into overall economic health. Its relationships with other indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), position it as an essential reference for gauging inflationary pressures in the economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Sep 12, 2018	2.3%	2.7%	2.7%	-0.4%
Aug 09, 2018	2.7%	2.8%	2.8%	-0.1%
Jul 11, 2018	2.8%	2.6%	2.4%	0.2%
Jun 13, 2018	2.4%	2.3%	2.3%	0.1%
May 09, 2018	2.3%	2.4%	2.7%	-0.1%
Apr 10, 2018	2.7%	2.6%	2.5%	0.1%
Mar 14, 2018	2.5%	2.5%	2.2%
Feb 15, 2018	2.2%	2.1%	2.3%	0.1%
Jan 11, 2018	2.3%	2.5%	2.4%	-0.2%
Dec 12, 2017	2.4%	2.3%	2.4%	0.1%
Nov 14, 2017	2.4%	2.3%	2.2%	0.1%
Oct 12, 2017	2.2%	2%	2%	0.2%
Sep 13, 2017	2%	2.1%	1.8%	-0.1%
Aug 10, 2017	1.8%	2.1%	1.9%	-0.3%
Jul 13, 2017	1.9%	2%	2.1%	-0.1%
Jun 13, 2017	2.1%	2%	1.9%	0.1%
May 11, 2017	1.9%	1.7%	1.6%	0.2%
Apr 13, 2017	1.6%	1.8%	1.5%	-0.2%
Mar 14, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.2%
Feb 14, 2017	1.2%	1.1%	1.6%	0.1%
Jan 13, 2017	1.6%	2.5%	1.6%	-0.9%
Dec 14, 2016	1.6%	1.3%	1.2%	0.3%
Nov 16, 2016	1.2%	1.5%	1.2%	-0.3%
Oct 14, 2016	1.2%	1.2%	1%
Sep 15, 2016	1%	1%	0.7%
Aug 12, 2016	0.7%	1.2%	1.3%	-0.5%
Jul 14, 2016	1.3%	1%	1.2%	0.3%
Jun 15, 2016	1.2%	1%	0.9%	0.2%
May 13, 2016	0.9%		1%
Apr 13, 2016	1%	1.3%	1.2%	-0.3%
Mar 15, 2016	1.2%	1.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Feb 17, 2016	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
Jan 15, 2016	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
Dec 11, 2015	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
Nov 13, 2015	0.1%	0.5%	0.8%	-0.4%
Oct 14, 2015	0.8%	1.2%	0.9%	-0.4%
Sep 11, 2015	0.9%	0.7%	0.6%	0.2%
Aug 14, 2015	0.6%	0.5%	0.8%	0.1%
Jul 15, 2015	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.1%
Jun 12, 2015	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	-0.1%
May 14, 2015	0.8%	1.1%	0.9%	-0.3%