Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: EUROSTAT

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

0.2%

EUR

Actual:

2.7%

Forecast: 2.5%

Previous/Revision:

2.4%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash measures the annual change in prices for goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, providing insights into underlying inflation trends. This indicator focuses primarily on cost pressures related to consumer goods and services, shedding light on inflation's impact on purchasing power and monetary policy decisions.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, typically as a flash estimate at the end of the month, which serves as a preliminary figure that may be revised at a later date.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash because inflation levels significantly influence central bank monetary policy, affecting interest rates and, consequently, the value of the euro (EUR). Higher-than-expected inflation readings are generally bullish for the euro and stocks, while weaker readings can have bearish implications for both markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Core Inflation Rate is derived from the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which is calculated using data gathered from extensive surveys on consumer prices across various goods and services. The measure is assembled using statistical methods that reduce the impact of seasonal variations and focuses on a stable basket of items, thereby providing a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends.

Description

The Core Inflation Rate is reported on a Year-over-Year (YoY) basis, comparing prices to the same month in the previous year to filter out seasonal fluctuations, making it a crucial tool for assessing persistent inflation trends over time. Preliminary data captures early inflation pressures, while final reports offer more comprehensive insights, reflecting actual market conditions.

Additional Notes

The Core Inflation Rate serves as a leading economic indicator, typically anticipated to influence broader economic policy decisions, particularly in the Eurozone. It directly correlates with other inflationary measures and helps in understanding the economic climate relative to similar indicators from other regions globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns is usually good for the EUR but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 02, 2025	2.7%	2.5%	2.4%	0.2%
Apr 01, 2025	2.4%	2.5%	2.6%	-0.1%
Mar 03, 2025	2.6%	2.5%	2.7%	0.1%
Feb 03, 2025	2.7%	2.6%	2.7%	0.1%
Jan 07, 2025	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%
Nov 29, 2024	2.7%	2.8%	2.7%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2024	2.7%	2.6%	2.7%	0.1%
Oct 01, 2024	2.7%	2.8%	2.8%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2024	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%
Jul 31, 2024	2.9%	2.8%	2.9%	0.1%
Jul 02, 2024	2.9%	2.8%	2.9%	0.1%
May 31, 2024	2.9%	2.8%	2.7%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2024	2.7%	2.6%	2.9%	0.1%
Apr 03, 2024	2.9%	3%	3.1%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2024	3.1%	2.9%	3.3%	0.2%
Feb 01, 2024	3.3%	3.2%	3.4%	0.1%
Jan 05, 2024	3.4%	3.4%	3.6%
Nov 30, 2023	3.6%	3.9%	4.2%	-0.3%
Oct 31, 2023	4.2%	4.2%	4.5%
Sep 29, 2023	4.5%	4.8%	5.3%	-0.3%
Aug 31, 2023	5.3%	5.3%	5.5%
Jul 31, 2023	5.5%	5.4%	5.5%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2023	5.4%	5.5%	5.3%	-0.1%
Jun 01, 2023	5.3%	5.5%	5.6%	-0.2%
May 02, 2023	5.6%	5.7%	5.7%	-0.1%
Mar 31, 2023	5.7%	5.7%	5.6%
Mar 02, 2023	5.6%	5.3%	5.3%	0.3%
Feb 01, 2023	5.2%	5.1%	5.2%	0.1%
Jan 06, 2023	5.2%	5%	5%	0.2%
Nov 30, 2022	5%	5%	5%
Oct 31, 2022	5%	4.9%	4.8%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2022	4.8%	4.7%	4.3%	0.1%
Aug 31, 2022	4.3%	4.1%	4%	0.2%
Jul 29, 2022	4%	3.8%	3.7%	0.2%
Jul 01, 2022	3.7%	3.9%	3.8%	-0.2%
May 31, 2022	3.8%	3.5%	3.5%	0.3%
Apr 29, 2022	3.5%	3.2%	2.9%	0.3%
Apr 01, 2022	3%	3.1%	2.7%	-0.1%
Mar 02, 2022	2.7%	2.5%	2.3%	0.2%
Feb 02, 2022	2.3%	1.9%	2.6%	0.4%
Jan 07, 2022	2.6%	2.5%	2.6%	0.1%
Nov 30, 2021	2.6%	2.3%	2%	0.3%
Oct 29, 2021	2.1%	1.9%	1.9%	0.2%
Oct 01, 2021	1.9%	1.9%	1.6%
Aug 31, 2021	1.6%	1.5%	0.7%	0.1%
Jul 30, 2021	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jun 30, 2021	0.9%	0.9%	1%
Jun 01, 2021	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2021	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
Mar 31, 2021	0.9%	1.1%	1.1%	-0.2%
Mar 02, 2021	1.1%	1.1%	1.4%
Feb 03, 2021	1.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.5%
Jan 07, 2021	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Dec 01, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Oct 30, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Oct 02, 2020	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.3%
Sep 01, 2020	0.4%	0.8%	1.2%	-0.4%
Jul 31, 2020	1.2%	0.8%	0.8%	0.4%
Jun 30, 2020	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
May 29, 2020	0.9%	0.8%	0.9%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2020	0.9%	0.7%	1%	0.2%
Mar 31, 2020	1%	1.1%	1.2%	-0.1%
Mar 03, 2020	1.2%	1.2%	1.1%
Jan 31, 2020	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	-0.1%
Jan 07, 2020	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%
Nov 29, 2019	1.3%	1.2%	1.1%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2019	1.1%	1.1%	1%
Oct 01, 2019	1%	1%	0.9%
Aug 30, 2019	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Jul 31, 2019	0.9%	1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Jun 28, 2019	1.1%	0.8%	0.8%	0.3%
Jun 04, 2019	0.8%	0.9%	1.3%	-0.1%
May 03, 2019	1.2%	1%	0.8%	0.2%
Apr 01, 2019	0.8%	0.9%	1%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2019	1%	1%	1.1%
Feb 01, 2019	1.1%	1%	1%	0.1%
Jan 04, 2019	1%	1%	1%
Nov 30, 2018	1%	1%	1.1%
Oct 31, 2018	1.1%	1.1%	0.9%
Sep 28, 2018	0.9%	1%	1%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2018	1%	1%	1.1%
Jul 31, 2018	1.1%	1%	0.9%	0.1%
Jun 29, 2018	1%	1%	1.1%
May 31, 2018	1.1%	1%	0.7%	0.1%
May 03, 2018	0.7%	0.9%	1%	-0.2%
Apr 04, 2018	1%	1.2%	1%	-0.2%
Feb 28, 2018	1%	1%	1%
Jan 31, 2018	1%	1%	0.9%
Jan 05, 2018	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Nov 30, 2017	0.9%	1.1%	0.9%	-0.2%
Oct 31, 2017	0.9%	1.2%	1.1%	-0.3%
Sep 29, 2017	1.1%	1.3%	1.2%	-0.2%
Aug 31, 2017	1.2%	1.3%	1.2%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2017	1.2%	1.1%	1.1%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2017	1.1%	0.9%	0.9%	0.2%
May 31, 2017	0.9%	1.1%	1.2%	-0.2%
Apr 28, 2017	1.2%	0.9%	0.7%	0.3%
Mar 31, 2017	0.7%	1%	0.9%	-0.3%
Mar 02, 2017	0.9%	1%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jan 31, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Jan 04, 2017	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%
Nov 30, 2016	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Oct 31, 2016	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Sep 30, 2016	0.8%	0.9%	0.8%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2016	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jul 29, 2016	0.9%	0.8%	0.9%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2016	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%
May 31, 2016	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
Apr 29, 2016	0.7%	0.9%	1%	-0.2%
Mar 31, 2016	1%	0.9%	0.8%	0.1%
Feb 29, 2016	0.7%	0.9%	1%	-0.2%
Jan 29, 2016	1%	0.9%	0.9%	0.1%
Jan 05, 2016	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Dec 02, 2015	0.9%	1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Oct 30, 2015	1%	0.9%	0.9%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2015	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Aug 31, 2015	1%	0.9%	1%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2015	1%	0.8%	0.8%	0.2%
Jun 30, 2015	0.8%	1%	0.9%	-0.2%
Jun 02, 2015	0.9%	0.1%	0.6%	0.8%