United States Christmas Day (Substitute Day)

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

Christmas Day (Substitute Day) in the United States is a part of holiday economic indicators that measures consumer spending, production, and employment during the holiday season. This event primarily focuses on retail sales, service activity, and the overall economic environment as consumers engage in higher levels of spending during this time.

Frequency

This indicator is observed annually, specifically occurring on December 25th, with its effects sometimes assessed in preliminary holiday sales reports released in early January.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor Christmas Day (Substitute Day) as it serves as a barometer for consumer spending patterns and economic health, impacting the retail sector and structured forecasts for GDP growth. Stronger retail sales figures can bolster currencies such as the USD and may lead to bullish trends in stock markets as consumer confidence appears robust.

What Is It Derived From?

The data surrounding Christmas Day (Substitute Day) is derived from various retail surveys and reports that measure consumer transactions across different sectors, particularly retail and hospitality. The calculations often involve surveying a significant number of retailers and service providers to assess the economic activity generated during the holiday season.

Description

The impact of Christmas Day (Substitute Day) extends beyond immediate retail sales, as it can indicate broader economic trends such as consumer confidence and potential seasonal employment boosts. While specific preliminary figures may provide early insights into holiday spending, final reports reflect consolidated data that offers a clearer picture of the economic impact.

Additional Notes

This indicator can be viewed as a coincident economic measure, as it reflects current economic activity during a key holiday season that influences long-term consumer behaviors and trends. Comparisons to previous holiday seasons can also offer insights into economic recovery or growth patterns in conjunction with other economic indicators like employment rates.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise