United States Chicago PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.9

USD

Actual:

44.6

Forecast: 45.5

Previous/Revision:

47.6

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 45.1

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region, focusing on factors such as production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a national indicator, synthesizing responses from purchasing managers to gauge current economic conditions and potential future activity in the manufacturing industry, with a key indicator threshold of 50 indicating expansion and below 50 signifying contraction.

Frequency

The Chicago PMI is released on a monthly basis, typically providing preliminary estimates around the last business day of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Chicago PMI closely as it serves as an important gauge of the manufacturing sector's performance, influencing perceptions of the broader U.S. economy. Positive or unexpectedly high figures can boost market sentiment, leading to a bullish stance for equities and the U.S. dollar, while weaker results may signal economic slowdown, impacting key commodities and fixed income markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from surveys conducted with purchasing managers from various manufacturing firms in the Chicago area, where respondents provide insights on a range of business conditions. Data collection proceeds through a diffusion index format, where a weighted average of responses indicates overall sector activity, adhering to standard methodologies established by the Institute for Supply Management.

Description

The Chicago PMI is a leading indicator of economic activity, primarily focusing on the manufacturing sector's vitality within the Chicago area. It facilitates the understanding of supply chain dynamics, production pace, and market demand, helping to predict future trends in the broader economy. The preliminary data often captures immediate market sentiments, while the final figures are based on more comprehensive information, leading to potential market adjustments.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic measure, the Chicago PMI is instrumental in providing timely insights that reflect broader economic trends and confidence within the manufacturing sector. Its relationship with other indicators such as national PMI readings and manufacturing output data allows for contextual comparisons and overall economic assessment.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	44.6	45.5	47.6	-0.9
Mar 31, 2025	47.6	45.2	45.5	2.4
Feb 28, 2025	45.5	40.6	39.5	4.9
Jan 31, 2025	39.5	40	36.9	-0.5
Dec 30, 2024	36.9	42.5	40.2	-5.6
Nov 27, 2024	40.2	44	41.6	-3.8
Oct 31, 2024	41.6	47	46.6	-5.4
Sep 30, 2024	46.6	46.2	46.1	0.4
Aug 30, 2024	46.1	45.5	45.3	0.6
Jul 31, 2024	45.3	45	47.4	0.3
Jun 28, 2024	47.4	40	35.4	7.4
May 31, 2024	35.4	41	37.9	-5.6
Apr 30, 2024	37.9	45	41.4	-7.1
Mar 28, 2024	41.4	46	44	-4.6
Feb 29, 2024	44	48	46	-4
Jan 31, 2024	46	48	47.2	-2
Dec 29, 2023	46.9	51	55.8	-4.1
Nov 30, 2023	55.8	45.4	44	10.4
Oct 31, 2023	44	45	44.1	-1
Sep 29, 2023	44.1	47.6	48.7	-3.5
Aug 31, 2023	48.7	44.1	42.8	4.6
Jul 31, 2023	42.8	43.3	41.5	-0.5
Jun 30, 2023	41.5	44	40.4	-2.5
May 31, 2023	40.4	47	48.6	-6.6
Apr 28, 2023	48.6	43.5	43.8	5.1
Mar 31, 2023	43.8	43.4	43.6	0.4
Feb 28, 2023	43.6	45	44.3	-1.4
Jan 31, 2023	44.3	45	44.9	-0.7
Dec 30, 2022	44.9	40	37.2	4.9
Nov 30, 2022	37.2	47	45.2	-9.8
Oct 31, 2022	45.2	47	45.7	-1.8
Sep 30, 2022	45.7	51.8	52.2	-6.1
Aug 31, 2022	52.2	52	52.1	0.2
Jul 29, 2022	52.1	55	56	-2.9
Jun 30, 2022	56	58	60.3	-2
May 31, 2022	60.3	55	56.4	5.3
Apr 29, 2022	58.5	62	62.9	-3.5
Mar 31, 2022	62.9	57	56.3	5.9
Feb 28, 2022	56.3	63	65.2	-6.7
Jan 31, 2022	65.2	61.7	64.3	3.5
Dec 30, 2021	63.1	62	61.8	1.1
Nov 30, 2021	61.8	67	68.4	-5.2
Oct 29, 2021	68.4	63.5	64.7	4.9
Sep 30, 2021	64.7	65	66.8	-0.3
Aug 31, 2021	66.8	68	73.4	-1.2
Jul 30, 2021	73.4	64.6	66.1	8.8
Jun 30, 2021	66.1	70	75.2	-3.9
May 28, 2021	75.2	68	72.1	7.2
Apr 30, 2021	72.1	65.3	66.3	6.8
Mar 31, 2021	66.3	60.7	59.5	5.6
Feb 26, 2021	59.5	61.1	63.8	-1.6
Jan 29, 2021	63.8	58.5	58.7	5.3
Dec 30, 2020	59.5	57	58.2	2.5
Nov 30, 2020	58.2	59	61.1	-0.8
Oct 30, 2020	61.1	58	62.4	3.1
Sep 30, 2020	62.4	52	51.2	10.4
Aug 28, 2020	51.2	52	51.9	-0.8
Jul 31, 2020	51.9	43.9	36.6	8
Jun 30, 2020	36.6	45	32.3	-8.4
May 29, 2020	32.3	40	35.4	-7.7
Apr 30, 2020	35.4	38	47.8	-2.6
Mar 31, 2020	47.8	40	49	7.8
Feb 28, 2020	49	45.9	42.9	3.1
Jan 31, 2020	42.9	48.8	48.2	-5.9
Dec 30, 2019	48.9	48	46.3	0.9
Nov 27, 2019	46.3	47	43.2	-0.7
Oct 31, 2019	43.2	48	47.1	-4.8
Sep 30, 2019	47.1	50.2	50.4	-3.1
Aug 30, 2019	50.4	47.5	44.4	2.9
Jul 31, 2019	44.4	50.6	49.7	-6.2
Jun 28, 2019	49.7	53.1	54.2	-3.4
May 31, 2019	54.2	53.7	52.6	0.5
Apr 30, 2019	52.6	59	58.7	-6.4
Mar 29, 2019	58.7	61	64.7	-2.3
Feb 28, 2019	64.7	57	56.7	7.7
Jan 31, 2019	56.7	61.5	63.8	-4.8
Dec 28, 2018	65.4	62	66.4	3.4
Nov 30, 2018	66.4	58	58.4	8.4
Oct 31, 2018	58.4	60	60.4	-1.6
Sep 28, 2018	60.4	62.5	63.6	-2.1
Aug 31, 2018	63.6	63	65.5	0.6
Jul 31, 2018	65.5	62	64.1	3.5
Jun 29, 2018	64.1	60	62.7	4.1
May 31, 2018	62.7	58	57.6	4.7
Apr 30, 2018	57.6	58	57.4	-0.4
Mar 29, 2018	57.4	62.1	61.9	-4.7
Feb 28, 2018	61.9	64.2	65.7	-2.3
Jan 31, 2018	65.7	64.2	67.8	1.5
Dec 28, 2017	67.6	62	63.9	5.6
Nov 30, 2017	63.9	63	66.2	0.9
Oct 31, 2017	66.2	61	65.2	5.2
Sep 29, 2017	65.2	58.5	58.9	6.7
Aug 31, 2017	58.9	58.5	58.9	0.4
Jul 31, 2017	58.9	61.3	65.7	-2.4
Jun 30, 2017	65.7	58	59.4	7.7
May 31, 2017	59.4	57	58.3	2.4
Apr 28, 2017	58.3	56.4	57.7	1.9
Mar 31, 2017	57.7	56.9	57.4	0.8
Feb 28, 2017	57.4	53	50.3	4.4
Jan 31, 2017	50.3	55	53.9	-4.7
Dec 30, 2016	54.6	57	57.6	-2.4
Nov 30, 2016	57.6	52	50.6	5.6
Oct 31, 2016	50.6	54	54.2	-3.4
Sep 30, 2016	54.2	52	51.5	2.2
Aug 31, 2016	51.5	54	55.8	-2.5
Jul 29, 2016	55.8	54	56.8	1.8
Jun 30, 2016	56.8	50.7	49.3	6.1
May 31, 2016	49.3	50.9	50.4	-1.6
Apr 29, 2016	50.4	53	53.6	-2.6
Mar 31, 2016	53.6	50	47.6	3.6
Feb 29, 2016	47.6	53	55.6	-5.4
Jan 29, 2016	55.6	45	42.9	10.6
Dec 31, 2015	42.9	49.8	48.7	-6.9
Nov 30, 2015	48.7	54	56.2	-5.3
Oct 30, 2015	56.2	49	48.7	7.2
Sep 30, 2015	48.7	53	54.4	-4.3
Aug 31, 2015	54.4	54.9	54.7	-0.5
Jul 31, 2015	54.7	50.5	49.4	4.2
Jun 30, 2015	49.4	50.1	46.2	-0.7
May 29, 2015	46.2	53	52.3	-6.8