Australia CB Leading Indicator

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

-0.4%

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

0.5%

Period: Oct

What Does It Measure?

The Australia CB Leading Indicator measures the expected economic activity in Australia by assessing various components likely to predict future performance, including consumer confidence, employment trends, and industrial production. It focuses specifically on factors that might indicate the future direction of economic growth, with key indicators typically involving changes in business investment and consumer behavior.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly and provides preliminary estimates that are subject to revision, typically published on the last Friday of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the CB Leading Indicator as it can provide insights into the future health of the Australian economy, which impacts financial markets, including currencies and equities. A positive reading can lead to bullish sentiment for the Australian dollar and stocks, while a weaker result may create bearish pressure.

What Is It Derived From?

The CB Leading Indicator is derived from a variety of economic surveys and data compilations that assess consumer and business sentiment, factoring in contributions from sectors such as manufacturing and services. The calculation involves evaluating diffusion indexes that summarize extensive responses from business leaders and economic experts regarding their expectations.

Description

The CB Leading Indicator serves as a tool for anticipating changes in the economic cycle, positioning it as a leading economic measure that can predict future economic expansions or contractions. Traders and analysts utilize this indicator to gauge market sentiment and refine economic forecasts, using the insights provided to make informed investment decisions.

Additional Notes

The CB Leading Indicator is often compared to other coincident and lagging indicators to provide a broader perspective on economic conditions. With its leading nature, it tends to guide expectations for subsequent economic performance, influencing both domestic and international economic outlooks.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Previous
Dec 19, 2016	-0.4%	0.5%
Nov 21, 2016	0.5%	0%
Oct 19, 2016	0%	0.5%
Sep 19, 2016	0.4%	0.1%
Aug 22, 2016	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 18, 2016	0.1%	0.5%
Jun 20, 2016	0.5%	0.1%
Nov 17, 2015	-0.1%	-0.4%
Oct 21, 2015	-0.4%	0.3%
Sep 23, 2015	0.3%	-0.3%
Aug 25, 2015	-0.2%	0.2%
Jul 17, 2015	0.2%	-0.3%
Jun 23, 2015	-0.3%	0%
May 19, 2015	-0.1%	0.5%