United Kingdom BoE Quarterly Bulletin

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Bank of England

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Bank of England's (BoE) Quarterly Bulletin measures the central bank's assessment of economic conditions, including inflation, growth, and labor market dynamics within the United Kingdom. It focuses on key areas such as productivity, consumer spending, and financial stability, providing valuable insights into the country's economic health.

Frequency

The BoE Quarterly Bulletin is released on a quarterly basis, typically published in the first month following the end of each quarter, and can include both preliminary estimates and final figures.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Quarterly Bulletin because it influences expectations regarding monetary policy, which can affect currency valuations, stock prices, and bond yields. Stronger economic assessments usually support a bullish stance on the British pound and equities, while negative assessments can lead to bearish corrections in these markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Quarterly Bulletin is derived from comprehensive economic data collected through various channels, including surveys of businesses, consumer sentiment indicators, and in-depth economic analysis conducted by Bank of England economists. The publication utilizes statistical methods to synthesize these inputs into a cohesive economic outlook.

Description

Preliminary reports provide initial assessments based on early data and are subject to revisions, while final reports offer a more accurate economic snapshot released at a later date. The bulletin typically includes Year-over-Year (YoY) comparisons to highlight long-term trends and assess structural economic changes, showing why this method is preferred for its ability to minimize seasonal effects.

Additional Notes

The Quarterly Bulletin can serve as a coincident indicator, reflecting the current state of the economy, and offers insights that can compare with related indicators such as GDP growth and inflation rates. It also aids in contextualizing the UK economy's performance relative to other nations, particularly in response to global economic trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the latest bulletin indicates a stronger-than-expected growth outlook, traders may interpret this as bullish for the GBP and bullish for UK stocks. Conversely, if the assessment points to significant economic concerns, it could be bearish for the GBP and bearish for equities, affecting investor sentiment and market positioning.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise