New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence Prel

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: ANZ Bank New Zealand

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

-8.6

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

-7.2

Period: Oct

What Does It Measure?

The ANZ Business Confidence indicator measures the sentiment of business owners regarding the economic outlook in New Zealand. It assesses key areas such as production expectations, employment intentions, and investment plans, providing insights into the overall health and direction of the economy.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, with preliminary estimates typically published around the first week of the month following the survey period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this event as it reflects business optimism or pessimism, which can significantly influence financial markets, including the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), equities, and commodities. Positive sentiment generally supports currency strength and stock market performance, while negative sentiment can lead to bearish reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The ANZ Business Confidence indicator is derived from a survey of approximately 1,500 business leaders across various sectors, utilizing diffusion indices where sentiment is quantified based on the responses to questions about expected business conditions. The methodology applies a weighting system to ensure that results accurately reflect the entire business landscape.

Description

The ANZ Business Confidence is often the preliminary measure before final adjustments are made based on revised data. The preliminary figures are based on initial responses and can indicate trends, while final reports provide a more refined view of business sentiment, which traders often use for strategic planning.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a leading economic measure, helping to forecast future economic activity in New Zealand. It is essential to recognize how changes in business confidence can have ripple effects throughout the economy, influencing consumer spending and investment decisions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for NZD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Oct 13, 2021	-8.6		-7.2
Jun 09, 2021	-0.4		1.8
May 06, 2021	7	3	-2	4
Apr 08, 2021	-8.4		-4.1
Mar 09, 2021	0	5.1	7	-5.1
Nov 05, 2020	-15.6	-15	-15.7	-0.6