United States ISM Services Business Activity

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-4

Actual:

Forecast: 54

Previous/Revision:

53.7

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Services Business Activity Index measures the economic performance and health of the services sector in the United States. It primarily focuses on business activity levels, new orders, employment, and inventory levels within the services industry, with a key indicator point of 50; values above this indicate expansion while those below signal contraction.

Frequency

The ISM Services Business Activity Index is released monthly, typically on the third business day of each month, and represents a preliminary estimate based on surveys conducted during the previous month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the ISM Services Business Activity Index as it provides insights into the services sector, which is a significant component of the U.S. economy, influencing financial markets. Positive or higher-than-expected results are often bullish for the U.S. dollar and equities, while weaker data may prompt bearish sentiment among investors.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives in about 400 companies across 18 services industries. The survey uses a diffusion index methodology, where responses are weighted to reflect the importance of each industry, capturing changes in business activity.

Description

This index serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current business conditions within the services sector. It is vital for market participants as it highlights trends in economic activity, with potential implications for future economic forecasts and monetary policy considerations.

Additional Notes

The ISM Services Business Activity Index is often compared with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, providing a broader view of economic health. It can be particularly useful for revealing emerging trends or divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors, which can influence overall economic assessments.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the actual value of the ISM Services Business Activity Index is higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. If the actual value is lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 04, 2025	50	54	53.7	-4
May 05, 2025	53.7	52.9	55.9	0.8
Apr 03, 2025	55.9	54	54.4	1.9
Mar 05, 2025	54.4	54.2	54.5	0.2
Feb 05, 2025	54.5	58.1	58	-3.6
Jan 07, 2025	58.2	54.1	53.7	4.1
Dec 04, 2024	53.7	57.3	57.2	-3.6
Nov 05, 2024	57.2	59.7	59.9	-2.5
Oct 03, 2024	59.9	53	53.3	6.9
Sep 05, 2024	53.3	54	54.5	-0.7
Aug 05, 2024	54.5	50.9	49.6	3.6
Jul 03, 2024	49.6	61	61.2	-11.4
Jun 05, 2024	61.2	53	50.9	8.2
May 03, 2024	50.9	56.4	57.4	-5.5
Apr 03, 2024	57.4	56.7	57.2	0.7
Mar 05, 2024	57.2	54.9	55.8	2.3
Feb 05, 2024	55.8	57	55.8	-1.2
Jan 05, 2024	56.6	55.3	55.1	1.3
Dec 05, 2023	55.1	54	54.1	1.1
Nov 03, 2023	54.1	59	58.8	-4.9
Oct 04, 2023	58.8	56.5	57.3	2.3
Sep 06, 2023	57.3	56.8	57.1	0.5
Aug 03, 2023	57.1	57.2	59.2	-0.1
Jul 06, 2023	59.2	51.9	51.5	7.3
Jun 05, 2023	51.5	52.5	52	-1
May 03, 2023	52	54.5	55.4	-2.5